Severe Thunderstorm Warning 224, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT...

RATHER EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH SEVERE STORMS ALREADY SOUTH OF HAYS AND NEAR
RUSSELL. THE AREA PROFILERS AND RUC MESO FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST
SHEAR PROFILE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MULTI-CELL/LINEAR
MODE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK
WITH STORMS EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION BODING FOR SOME LARGE
HAIL AS WELL. WITH A BIT OF A SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTION STILL INTACT
OVER SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS GREATER THAN
TWO INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RISK LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SO...MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH SOME OF IT COULD
BE EXCESSIVE TOO.

OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. GOING MAXS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S LOOK OK
THOUGH LINGERING CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRI COULD RESULT IN TEMPS EVEN
A LITTLE BIT COOLER. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL ENHANCE/SHARPEN A TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING
A FRONT TO BACKDOOR THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY AND HOT FORECAST...WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  88  68  91 /  60  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  87  66  90 /  70  30  10  10
NEWTON          69  87  66  90 /  70  30  10  10
ELDORADO        72  88  67  90 /  60  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  90  69  92 /  50  50  20  10
RUSSELL         64  88  63  91 /  70  10   5   5
GREAT BEND      65  87  64  90 /  70  10   5  10
SALINA          68  89  66  92 /  70  10   5   5
MCPHERSON       69  87  66  90 /  70  20   5  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  91  69  92 /  50  50  20  10
CHANUTE         72  88  67  90 /  50  50  20  10
IOLA            71  88  67  90 /  60  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  90  68  91 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-032130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
325 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE MAIN
RISK WILL BE FOR DAMAGING DOWN-BURST WINDS TO 80 MPH...AND LARGE
HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM CENTRAL KANSAS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF
LOW-LYING AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS MAINLY SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR AREAS NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER.

HEAT INDICES COULD RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE TURNPIKE FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED

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