Severe Thunderstorm Warning 220, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND SEVERE/HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TONIGHT...

RATHER EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL KANSAS...WITH SEVERE STORMS ALREADY SOUTH OF HAYS AND NEAR
RUSSELL. THE AREA PROFILERS AND RUC MESO FORECAST WOULD SUGGEST
SHEAR PROFILE IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED AND SUPPORTIVE
OF A FEW SUPERCELL STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
KANSAS. CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MULTI-CELL/LINEAR
MODE THROUGH THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK
WITH STORMS EXHIBITING MID-LEVEL ROTATION BODING FOR SOME LARGE
HAIL AS WELL. WITH A BIT OF A SUB-TROPICAL CONNECTION STILL INTACT
OVER SOUTHWARD SAGGING FRONT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS GREATER THAN
TWO INCHES...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RISK LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. SO...MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD RECEIVE BENEFICIAL
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THOUGH SOME OF IT COULD
BE EXCESSIVE TOO.

OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY COOLER AIR WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT ON THURSDAY. GOING MAXS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S LOOK OK
THOUGH LINGERING CONVECTION/CLOUD DEBRI COULD RESULT IN TEMPS EVEN
A LITTLE BIT COOLER. UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AND MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. PERIODIC SHORTWAVES IN THE WESTERLIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER WILL ENHANCE/SHARPEN A TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...ALLOWING
A FRONT TO BACKDOOR THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN JUST NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SO WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY AND HOT FORECAST...WITH TEMPS A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO.

DARMOFAL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  88  68  91 /  60  40  10  10
HUTCHINSON      69  87  66  90 /  70  30  10  10
NEWTON          69  87  66  90 /  70  30  10  10
ELDORADO        72  88  67  90 /  60  40  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   73  90  69  92 /  50  50  20  10
RUSSELL         64  88  63  91 /  70  10   5   5
GREAT BEND      65  87  64  90 /  70  10   5  10
SALINA          68  89  66  92 /  70  10   5   5
MCPHERSON       69  87  66  90 /  70  20   5  10
COFFEYVILLE     74  91  69  92 /  50  50  20  10
CHANUTE         72  88  67  90 /  50  50  20  10
IOLA            71  88  67  90 /  60  40  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    73  90  68  91 /  50  50  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1049 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-031130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1049 AM CDT WED AUG 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO EUREKA. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

HEAT INDICES WILL EXCEED 100 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY
SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE...AND MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES FOR A
SHORT TIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY.
OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO EARLY MORNING AND LATE
EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE ON THURSDAY...WITH
CHANCES LINGERING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA.

HEAT INDICES WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM WELLINGTON TO
EUREKA.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

SCHRECK/KLEINSASSER

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