Severe Thunderstorm Warning 196, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH THE
NEXT 36HRS...FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF +100 DEGREE HEAT INDICES
STARTING TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS NEXT SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES CURRENTLY TRACKING EAST ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS/COLORADO. ONCE
AGAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES...ONE BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS...ANOTHER BOUNDARY WAS DRAPED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS FROM WEST TO EAST. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY/88D ALREADY SHOWING SOME DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN
WESTERN KANSAS. A MCV SOUTH OF THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER WAS ALSO
KICKING OFF SOME ACTIVITY. THE AIRMASS HAS NOT CHANGED ANY OVER
KANSAS AND REMAINS VERY TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A
RISK FROM SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. NUMEROUS STORM-SCALE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER AND SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY
GOING WELL AFTER SUNSET.

THUR-FRI
THUNDERSTORMS MIGHT LINGER OVER EASTERN KANSAS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS
KANSAS THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT INDICES WILL GO ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK STARTING
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSISTENT FOR SEVERAL
DAYS THEREAFTER WITH MOIST AIRMASS LINGERING AROUND THE STATE.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES COULD FINALLY WIND DOWN FOR FRIDAY AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARDS KANSAS.

EXTENDED: SAT-WED
VERY HOT TEMPS WITH HEAT INDICES WELL ABOVE 100 DEGREES EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD FOR KANSAS. THE HIGH LEVELS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL CREATE DANGEROUS WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR ANY OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.

MODELS SHOW SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...BUT CHANCES OF THIS FRONT REACHING CENTRAL KANSAS LOOK
RATHER SLIM AT THIS TIME AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE KEEPS A FIRM
GRIP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS A RESULT...ANY RELIEF OR BREAK-DOWN
OF THE VERY HOT WEATHER PATTERN COULD BE DELAYED FOR SEVERAL MORE
DAYS.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  98  73  99 /  30  20  30  10
HUTCHINSON      72  98  73 100 /  40  10  30   5
NEWTON          71  98  72  99 /  30  20  30  10
ELDORADO        72  97  73  98 /  30  20  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  99  73 100 /  40  20  20  10
RUSSELL         70  98  71 100 /  40  20  30   5
GREAT BEND      70  98  71 100 /  40  20  30   5
SALINA          72  98  73 100 /  30  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       71  98  72 100 /  40  20  30  10
COFFEYVILLE     72  96  73  97 /  40  20  30  20
CHANUTE         71  94  72  95 /  30  30  30  20
IOLA            71  94  72  95 /  30  30  30  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  95  73  97 /  30  30  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
334 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-132145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
334 PM CDT WED JUL 12 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN KANSAS
THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG OR ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY
AFFECTING LOCATIONS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO EL
DORADO...TO PARSONS. THE MAIN RISK WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWN-
BURST WINDS AROUND 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO NICKEL SIZE...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT...ONCE AGAIN A FEW STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
FRIDAY.

HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 105 WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAT INDICES COULD GO
ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR MUCH OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON TIME FRAME
FROM SATURDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT...
DUE TO THE RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/CJ

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