Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
810 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.UPDATE...
ONGOING SEVERE CONVECTION IS BEING AIDED BY ROUGHLY 1500 J/KG OF
MLCAPE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY...AND AHEAD OF
A SUBTLE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE THE AREA.
SFC-850MB INFLOW IS ALSO FAIRLY DECENT SOUTH OF THIS COMPLEX. SEVERE
REPORTS HAVE BEEN LIMITED TO MAINLY MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND 60
TO 80 MPH WINDS...THE LATTER BEING AIDED BY DRIER AIR ALOFT.
ENTIRE COMPLEX SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST...ALONG SYSTEM-GENERATED COLD POOL AND INTO
MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW. THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE INTO
SOUTHEAST KS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING GRADUALLY ENDING SEVERE THREAT...AND TRANSITIONING
TO A HEAVY RAINFALL/LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT.

OTHER ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL LINGER FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF THE TURNPIKE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING HOURS...DUE
TO PASSING UPPER TROUGH...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND NUMEROUS MESOSCALE
BOUNDARIES.

AS FOR LATER TONIGHT...NOT QUITE SURE HOW CONVECTIVE SCENARIO WILL
PLAY OUT. CURRENT COMPLEX OVER THE FLINT HILLS/SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WILL LIKELY STABLIZE THE AIRMASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE. MODELS
INDICATE WEAK SYNOPTIC FRONT PROGRESSING SOUTH TONIGHT...PROGGING
THE GREATEST SFC-850MB CONVERGENCE ALONG THE OKLAHOMA BORDER AND
SOUTHEAST KS. HOWEVER...THIS EVENINGS ACTIVITY MAY BE THE MAIN
SHOW...WITH JUST WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THEREAFTER.
OVERALL...THINKING THE BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS LATER TONIGHT WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...CLOSEST IN PROXIMITY
TO ANY BOUNDARIES...SYNOPTIC OR MESOSCALE.

ADK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006/

DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS WILL DEAL WITH CONVECTIVE EPISODES TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HOT TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

TONIGHT
CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/PROFILER NETWORK SHOWS A SHORT WAVE
MOVING INTO WESTERN KANSAS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM WESTERN KANSAS
TOWARDS CENTRAL KANSAS...AS MASS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME
HRS AS NUMEROUS STORM-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSE ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN
FAVORABLE WET MICROBURST POTENTIAL FROM COLLAPSING CORES. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A RISK DUE TO TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE
ALONG WITH SLOW STORM MOVEMENT. MEANWHILE...PATCHY AREAS OF FOG
COULD DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES.

WED-THUR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE YET AGAIN FOR THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
SHOW ANOTHER IMPULSE SLIDING EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DEPEND ON
POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY WHICH SEEMS LIKE IT COULD
STALL OUT OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS FOR WEDNESDAY. THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S.

FRI
WILL KEEP THE DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS GOING FOR THIS PERIOD...HOWEVER
MODELS ARE STILL PERSISTENT WITH A SHORT WAVE MOVING VERY SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS RE-EVALUATE
THIS POTENTIAL BEFORE EXTENDING POPS INTO FRIDAY.

EXTENDED: SAT-TUES
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT KANSAS DURING THIS
PERIOD...WITH HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100 AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS
PREVAILING.

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS
MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
DIURNAL ACTIVITY...HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TOO REMOTE TO
INTRODUCE ANYTHING AT THIS JUNCTURE FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND HOW FAR SOUTH WILL THE FRONT MAKE IT BEFORE IT
STALLS OUT IS THE MAIN CHALLENGE. PRESENT MODEL INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THAT THE FRONT COULD MAKE IT INTO KANSAS BY TUESDAY...BUT FEEL THAT
THE HEAT WILL STILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY COULD VERY WELL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH IF NOT ALL OF NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IF A MODEST TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHWEST COAST
THUS AMPLIFYING THE DOWNSTREAM UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

JAKUB

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    71  95  72  97 /  40  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      70  95  72  97 /  30  20  20  10
NEWTON          70  94  71  96 /  30  20  20  20
ELDORADO        71  94  72  96 /  40  20  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   72  95  72  97 /  40  20  30  20
RUSSELL         68  94  70  98 /  20  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      69  94  70  98 /  30  20  20  10
SALINA          69  94  72  98 /  20  10  20  20
MCPHERSON       69  94  71  97 /  30  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     72  93  72  94 /  40  20  20  20
CHANUTE         72  92  71  92 /  40  20  20  20
IOLA            72  91  71  92 /  40  20  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    72  93  72  93 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
736 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-122030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
736 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL PRODUCE 60 TO 70 MPH WINDS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE IN
INTENSITY BY 11 PM...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY THREAT
THEREAFTER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND MAINLY ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS INTO THURSDAY MORNING. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY...DUE TO THE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

KED/CDB/ADK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
734 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

KSZ092-120100-
SUMNER-
734 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR SUMNER COUNTY...

AT 730 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES WEST OF WELLINGTON...AND MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
818 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 W ARKANSAS CITY       37.07N 97.10W
07/11/2006  E70 MPH          COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREE LIMBS DOWN AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL WAS
            ALSO REPORTED WITH THIS STORM.

&&

CDJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
818 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

KSZ070-120200-
GREENWOOD-
818 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR GREENWOOD COUNTY...

AT 812 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HAMILTON...OR 15 MILES NORTH OF EUREKA...AND
MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

COX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
823 PM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARKANSAS CITY           37.07N 97.04W
07/11/2006                   COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE LIMBS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER DOWNED IN
            ARKANSAS CITY.

&&

CDJ

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