Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
306 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTION CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THEN MAGNITUDE OF WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT
A LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY WAS CURRENTLY SITUATED FROM SALINA SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS MEDICINE LODGE. MODEST CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SHEAR IS MARGINAL ALOFT BUT MODERATE CAPE VALUES AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL  LAPSE RATES SUPPORT SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE
EVENING HRS. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS AND SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT WHICH WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARY
WOULD HAVE THE HIGHER RISK FOR SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HRS AND COULD BEGIN TO TAPER
OFF OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AFTER SUNSET ONCE DAYTIME HEATING IS
LOST...HOWEVER ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
OVER NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN KANSAS LATER ON AND UPPER JET
INFLUENCES FROM RIGHT REAR QUAD COULD CAUSE ACTIVITY TO RE-DEVELOP
OVER CENTRAL KANSAS.

WED-THUR
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER IMPULSE OVER IDAHO/WYOMING
WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THIS PERIOD.
THIS IMPULSE IN COMBINATION WITH INFLUENCE OF RIGHT REAR QUAD OF
UPPER JET WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
KANSAS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN DUE TO CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY. HEADING INTO THURSDAY SOME
RESIDUAL ELEVATED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW COULD YIELD SOME DIURNAL
ACTIVITY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE FRONT. AS A RESULT WILL PUT SOME ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING IN FOR
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HRS.

FRI
A FIVE STAR DAY COULD BE SHAPING UP FOR THIS PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN KANSAS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND DAYTIME
HIGHS AROUND NORMAL.

EXTENDED: SAT-TUES
A WARM TO HOT WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FOR THE WEEKEND...AND CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK.

WOULD EXPECT SOME STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HRS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY TO AFFECT CENTRAL KANSAS. MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRYING TO SAG SOUTH THEN STALL
OUT AS UPPER FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES MORE ZONAL. AT THIS JUNCTURE
IT LOOKS LIKE THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO WE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS
GOING...BUT IF BOUNDARY DOES SAG INTO THE AREA THEN PRECIP CHANCES
WILL NEED TO BE ADDED. MEANWHILE...VERY WARM 850MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED
BY THE MODELS TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND THIS BUBBLE OF WARM
AIR SHOULD GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS KANSAS. AS A
RESULT...TEMPS SHOULD WARM UP INTO THE 90S AND WE WILL RAISE TEMPS
ACROSS THE BOARD.

JAKUB

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    65  81  63  82 /  70  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      64  81  62  83 /  70  40  20  10
NEWTON          65  81  63  82 /  70  40  20  10
ELDORADO        66  81  63  82 /  70  40  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   66  82  63  83 /  70  40  30  10
RUSSELL         61  81  60  83 /  50  30  10  10
GREAT BEND      61  81  60  84 /  50  30  20  10
SALINA          65  80  62  82 /  60  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       65  80  62  83 /  70  40  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     66  83  64  82 /  60  50  30  20
CHANUTE         66  83  63  82 /  50  40  30  20
IOLA            66  83  63  81 /  50  40  30  10
PARSONS-KPPF    66  83  64  82 /  60  50  30  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-312230-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
419 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM THE SLOW MOVING STORMS.

THE SEVERE WEATHER WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS AS THE THUNDERSTORMS EVOLVE INTO A COMPLEX OF
STORMS. THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WILL HAVE THE GREATER RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

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