Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
744 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.UPDATE...
LEFT MOVING SUPERCELL IS MAKING A BEE-LINE FOR BARTON COUNTY.
THEREFORE WE EXPANDED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH TO INCLUDE
BARTON COUNTY. COULD SEE SOME VERY LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING GOLFBALLS
WITH THAT STORM...ALONG WITH WINDS EXCEEDING 60 MPH.

STORMS ARE NOT QUITE AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...PROBABLY DUE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM
THICK ANVIL SHIELD. CONVECTIVE FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF
STORMS CURRENTLY WEST OF THE CWA CAN BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
DEVELOP A COLD POOL...THEN THEY SHOULD EXPAND AND PUSH EAST. THIS
SEEMS LIKE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS FROM AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. ANOTHER AREA OF POSSIBLE INITIATION IS OVER
THE FLINT HILLS ALONG ANOTHER OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR GENERALLY WEST OF THE TURNPIKE THIS
EVENING...WHERE BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESIDES. IF A LARGE
COMPLEX CAN DEVELOP TONIGHT...IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY SLOW MOVING...SO
FLOODING COULD BECOME A THREAT LATER TONIGHT...ALONG WITH
DECREASING SEVERE THREAT.

KLEINSASSER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006/

UPDATE...
UPDATED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...ZONE FORECASTS...AREA FORECAST
MATRICES...POINT FORECAST MATRICES AND WEB PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AND CURRENT THINKING.

KLEINSASSER

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 521 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING WILL BE THE INITIATION POINTS OF WHERE THE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP.

IT LOOKS LIKE MORE THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP FURTHER NORTH AS
THE EVENING PROGRESSES...BUT IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE
THE WHERE THESE STORMS WILL ERUPT. STATIONARY BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
EXTEND FROM JUST WEST OF ALVA TO NEAR SALINA. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THAT
STORMS COULD START DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL KANSAS WHERE THIS IS SOME
DECENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. HOWEVER...WITH THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
FROM THE STORMS IN OKLAHOMA IT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. ONCE THE STORMS DO DEVELOP...THEY WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS AND PRODUCE SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. THIS MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING. THESE STORMS WILL ALSO
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WITH THE MAIN
DAMAGING WIND THREATS BEING WEST OF A HUTCHINSON AND SALINA LINE
WHERE THEY ARE A LITTLE DRIER BELOW 850MB. SHEAR PROFILE FROM
HILLSBORO AND VWPS ARE SHOWING THE SHEAR BEING MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL ABOVE 5KFT. WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN CASE IT BACKS FURTHER WEST
TOWARDS EVENING. THIS MAY CAUSE STORMS TO LIGHT UP CLOSER TO RUSSELL
AND GREAT BEND.

&&

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    92  68  81  65 / MMM  80  70  50
HUTCHINSON      91  66  78  64 / MMM  70  70  50
NEWTON          91  67  78  65 / MMM  80  70  50
ELDORADO        90  68  79  66 / MMM  70  70  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   93  69  83  66 / MMM  70  60  50
RUSSELL         87  63  76  61 / MMM  40  60  50
GREAT BEND      88  64  77  61 / MMM  40  70  50
SALINA          90  65  77  65 / MMM  60  60  50
MCPHERSON       90  66  78  65 / MMM  70  70  50
COFFEYVILLE     91  69  82  66 / MMM  40  50  40
CHANUTE         88  69  80  66 / MMM  40  50  40
IOLA            88  68  80  66 / MMM  40  50  40
PARSONS-KPPF    89  69  82  66 / MMM  40  50  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
533 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302345-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
533 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG A
LINE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY SALINA TO HUTCHINSON TO MEDICINE
LODGE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY
BECOME SEVERE. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL UP TO GOLFBALLS AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL ALSO BE A THREAT DUE TO SLOW STORM
MOVEMENT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE TURNPIKE.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO A SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES. THE SEVERE HAIL AND WIND
THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY TRANSITION TO A HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING THREAT ACROSS PRIMARILY SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA AND PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY...ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE ON
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS SOME STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
TIME PERIOD. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF STORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE REFINED WITH LATER FORECASTS. SO IT IS ADVISED TO
CHECK LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS PRIMARILY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWO.PHP

BDK/CDB/ADK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
843 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             BEVERLY                 39.01N 97.98W
05/29/2006  E0.75 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
854 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 PM     HAIL             6 W WESTFALL            38.93N 98.11W
05/29/2006  E0.50 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

LFW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
910 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             3 NE WESTFALL           38.96N 97.96W
05/29/2006  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LFW

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