Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
200 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SUMMER HEAT STILL ONGOING WITH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROUGHLY
ON PAR WITH YESTERDAY. LOOKS LIKE WE HAVE ONE MORE DAY OF THIS
OPPRESSIVE HEAT BEFORE WE FINALLY CATCH A BREAK.

SHORT TERM (THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
BASICALLY TAKING A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED PERSISTENCE FOR THE NEXT 36
HOURS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100...AND LOWS IN THE
LOW/MID 70S. THIS IS 1-2 DEGREES ABOVE MET/FWC GUIDANCE FOR THE
MAXES...WHICH HAS BEEN A VISIBLE TREND FOR ABOUT A WEEK NOW. THIS IS
WELL ABOVE THE MAV GUIDANCE...WHICH HAS BEEN OFF THE MARK BADLY IN
THIS HEAT WAVE.

GFS IS TOO FAST IN BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ON FRIDAY...WILL FOLLOW
THE SLOWER MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS LEADS TO CHANCE POPS AND HIGHS A
LITTLE LESS WARM. STILL THE SHOALS COULD REACH 100 WITH STILL SOME
LINGERING UPPER RIDGE INFLUENCE. RAIN CHANCE HOLDS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
AS THE SFC FRONT APPROACHES ALONG WITH THE UPPER TROF AXIS.
AGAIN...BELIEVE GFS IS TOO FAST AND LEANED TOWARD THE NAM.

EXTENDED (SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...
SATURDAY COULD BE THE BEST DAY WEVE HAD IN A WHILE...UNLESS YOU
WANT TO PARTICIPATE IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. RAIN LOOKS REASONABLY
LIKELY...AND HIGHS SHOULD STAY IN THE 80S

ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS WAY WAY TOO FAST AND WAY WAY TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THE SFC FRONT...IT DOES APPEAR THE FRONT WILL SINK JUST SOUTH OF US
BY EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE WASHING OUT. WE MAY NEED TO LOWER POPS FOR
SUNDAY IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

THEN...MONDAY SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...BEFORE SOUTHERLY FLOW
RE-ESTABLISHES IN EARNEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. CHANCE POPS WERE
INCLUDED FOR BOTH DAYS. THE ADDED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS AROUND 90...AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

FAST FACTS...
WE WILL NOT REACH 100 TODAY AT KHSV...TEMPS ARE DROPPING NOW. WE
HAVE REACHED 100 FOR THE SECOND DAY AT KMSL...AND A THIRD DAY IS
LIKELY TOMORROW. TOMORROW IN THIS SPACE WE WILL TALK ABOUT THE
DROUGHT SITUATION AND HOW MUCH...IF AT ALL...THE FORECAST RAIN WILL
HELP IT.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    74 100  75  98 /  10  10  10  30
SHOALS        73 102  75 100 /  10  10  10  30
CULLMAN       73  99  74  98 /  10  10  10  30
FAYETTEVILLE  73  98  74  97 /  10  10  10  30
ALBERTVILLE   73  98  76  98 /  10  10  10  30
FORT PAYNE    71  99  72  97 /  10  10  10  30
&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

JE/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-201130-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
100 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 98
TO 103 DEGREES...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES VALUES RANGING FROM 105
TO 110...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL CREATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

FOR INFORMATION THAT INCLUDES SAFETY TIPS ON THE HEAT WAVE...PLEASE
VISIT THE HUNTSVILLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WEEKEND...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
204 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

ALZ006-191945-
MADISON-
204 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 203 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF WOODVILLE...OR 16 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF HUNTSVILLE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WINDS UP TO
50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...
  GURLEY.
  OWENS CROSSROADS.
  NEW HOPE.

REMEMBER...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STORM TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. SEEK SAFE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.

CBD