Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
942 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

.UPDATE...
MRNG SFC AND U/A ANALYSIS PAINT ANOTHER SCORCHER ACROSS THE TN VLY
TODAY. 14Z TEMPS ARE ACTUALLY RUNNING 1-2F WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
AT THIS TIME...AND H8 TEMPS ARE A TAD WARMER THAN YDY ON THE 12Z
ANALYSIS. THE BIG PICTURE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN OPPRESSIVE H5 RIDGE
CENTERED ACROSS THE NATIONS MIDSECTION. WHEN H5 HEIGHTS ARE IN
EXCESS OF 590 DM ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY...ITS NEVER A GOOD
SIGN. CLOSER TO HOME...THE SFC ANALYSIS DID SHOW A WEAK
TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY ALONG A MEM-GTR-TCL-AUO LINE.
A SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ORIENTED FROM SE MO
THROUGH NRN MID TN AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS.

OVERALL...FCST FOR TODAY LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. THOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING...THE WEAK
SHEAR AXIS AND MODEST INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD CONVECTION
THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES IN THE 2-2.5
KJ/KG RANGE THIS AFTN WITH A NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC LAYER BELOW THE
FREEZING LEVEL. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL BE LOW IN AREAL COVERAGE...A
STRONG/SEVERE MICROBURST PRODUCING CELL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

ONLY UPDATE PLANNED THIS MRNG IS PERHAPS (UGH...I HATE TO SAY IT) A
MINOR NUDGE UPWARD IN THE MAX TEMPS. CONDITIONS ARE BORDERLINE FOR
A HEAT ADVY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MIXING IN THE AFTN TO
PREVENT WIDESPREAD HX VALUES OF 110F OR GREATER. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT IN ZONES ARE PREVIOUSLYL MENTIONED.

FOR REFERENCE...THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY ACROSS THE REGION ARE
AS FOLLOWS...

HUNTSVILLE - 104 (1913)
MUSCLE SHOALS - 102 (1980)
DECATUR - 103 (1902) *UNOFFICIAL
ATHENS - 99 (1980) *UNOFFICIAL
CULLMAN - 101 (2000) *UNOFFICIAL
GUNTERSVILLE - 101 (1980) *UNOFFICIAL
SCOTTSBORO - 102 (1980) *UNOFFICIAL
VALLEY HEAD - 105 (1944) *UNOFFICIAL

ALSO OF NOTE...THE LAST TIME HSV GOT TO TO 103F OR GREATER WAS
JULY 27TH 1993 WHEN THE TEMP REACHED 104. THE LAST TIME MSL GOT TO
103F OR GREATER WAS AUGUST 29TH OF 2000 WHEN THE TEMP ALSO REACHED 104.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 330 AM CDT WED JUL 19 2006...
THURSDAY SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. GUIDANCE IS SHOWING
SOME COOLING FOR THURSDAY...THOUGH MODEL 850MB TEMPS ARE NOT ANY
COOLER. CURRENT PLAN IS TO GO WITH HIGHS APPROACHING 100...BUT NOT
ABOVE JUST YET. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A RESURGENCE OF
THE RIDGE AND EVEN DRIER AIR FOR THURSDAY AFTN...SO PCPN CHANCES
SHOULD AGAIN BE LIMITED. WILL STILL MENTION ISOLD STORMS IN THE
GRIDS/ZFP.

FRIDAY IS OUR TRANSITION DAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. GFS IS
MUCH WETTER THAN THE NAM AS USUAL...THOUGH IT MAY BE TRYING TO PICK
UP ON OUTFLOW-ENHANCED TSTM COVERAGE WHICH DOES SEEM REASONABLE.
BELIEVE THINGS WILL STILL STAY IN THE ISOLD RANGE FOR MOST OF THE
AREA...SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS SRN MID TN CLOSER TO THE FRONT ITSELF.
ALL OF THIS MEANS THE TN VALLEY WILL EXPERIENCE A COOL DOWN...THOUGH
PROBABLY NOT AS COLD AS THE RAIN-INFLUENCED GFS MOS. PLAN IS TO GO
WITH THE NAM/ETA MOS AND MID 90S.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
MED-RANGE MODELS SHOW SMALL BUT IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES IN THE OVERALL
PATTERN...WITH THE GFS BY FAR THE MOST AMPLIFIED AND AGGRESSIVE IN
PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. NAM AND ECMWF
ARE SLOWER...AND TEND TO BUY INTO THIS SCENARIO MORE GIVEN THE TIME
OF YEAR AND RIDGE STRENGTH. CONSEQUENTLY THINK THE GFS IS OVERDONE
ON QPF AND POPS...THOUGH SATURDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE THE BEST DAY
FOR RAIN CHANCES. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT ACROSS THE AREA SUN
OR MON...KEEPING ISOLD-SCTD SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST...THEN RETREAT
NWD MON/TUES AS THE RIDGE RETURNS ALOFT. TEMPERATURE REASONING IS
FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PRECIP REASONING...AS THE GFSX MOS DATA APPEARS
TO BE WAY TOO COLD SAT. HOWEVER UPPER 80S DO APPEAR REASONABLE /AND
DOWNRIGHT COMFORTABLE/ WITH A RETURN TO THE 90S EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE WARM FRONT.

CLIMATE...
KHSV ALREADY SET YESTERDAYS RECORD HIGH OF 102...THE WARMEST IT HAS
BEEN SINCE AUG 2000...AND CAME CLOSE FOR A WHILE TO BREAKING THE
RECORD WARM TEMP FOR THE DATE OF 80...AND THE ALL-TIME RECORD WARM
LOW OF 81...LAST SET IN 1921. MAY FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGH AT KMSL
OF 102 /1980/...THOUGH 104 /1913/ AT KHSV IS LIKELY A BIT OUT OF
REACH. UNOFFICIAL RECORDS AT OUR COOP STATIONS ARE IN THE SAME
GENERAL RANGE...100 TO 105. RECORDS HIGHS FOR THURSDAY ARE 102 AT
HSV /1926/ AND JUST 100 AT MSL /1930/ FOR HIGHS. SEE OUR FORTHCOMING
PUBLIC INFO STATEMENT /HUNPNSHUN OR NOUS44 KHUN/ FOR MORE.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

15/CBD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
100 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-201130-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
100 PM CDT WED JUL 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

HOT WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TODAY. THE
COMBINATION OF HUMIDITY AND AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 98
TO 103 DEGREES...WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES VALUES RANGING FROM 105
TO 110...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-65.

IN ADDITION...THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
EVENING WILL CREATE THE THREAT FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...AND DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

FOR INFORMATION THAT INCLUDES SAFETY TIPS ON THE HEAT WAVE...PLEASE
VISIT THE HUNTSVILLE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB PAGE AT:
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.
THIS WEEKEND...AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

RSB

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