Flash Flood Warning 9, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
702 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.AVIATION...
THE NEARLY STATIONARY MCS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OPERATIONS AT
IAH THROUGH 16Z. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR AND THE RUC ANALYSIS OF
THE 700 TO 300 MB WINDS INDICATED THAT THERE WAS A VORTICITY
CENTER JUST NORTH OF CROCKETT. THIS ANALYSIS COMPARED WELL WITH
THE EARLIER MODEL ANALYSIS WHICH INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE LIKELY ACROSS THE IAH AND HOU TERMINALS THROUGH 21Z. OTHER
DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH INDICATES THAT GLS AND LBX WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THUNDERSTORMS...ALSO.

PL-40

&&

.MARINE...
SCEC CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 18Z. INFLOW INTO THE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND COUNTIES WILL KEEP THE WIND SPEEDS
UNTIL THE STORMS BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING.

PL-40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 301 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006)

DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT 08Z...ANOTHER MCS IS ONGOING OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THIS FEATURE IS
BACKBUILDING SW WITH STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF LIBERTY AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF
THE MCS AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS HELD TEMPS DOWN YESTERDAY AND HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL ALSO HELP STABILIZE THE REGION AND
CLOUDS HOLD DOWN HEATING. A WELL DEFINED 500 MB TROF AXIS LIES
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LIE ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THIS AXIS. HIGHEST PWS AND BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALSO FAVORS EAST TEXAS TODAY. STILL IT IS DIFFICULT TO
FATHOM THAT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECHARGE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OVER AREAS GETTING HAMMERED THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES DUE TO HIGH PW AIR...SLOW STORM
MOTION AND TRAINING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TUES/WED AS HIGH PW AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LOW/TROF AXIS WAVERS OVER TEXAS.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
AND AMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST WILL TREND DRIER AND WARMER
NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. 43

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 1 PM MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60
     NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
     20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...
     AND WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
526 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-301030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
526 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TODAY...

TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS RETURNED TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WILL STAY
OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK SO STORM MOTION WILL BE 10 MPH OR LESS.
THOUGH AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN A HALF AND ONE
INCH...POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN WITH TOTALS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL LIE EAST
OF A MADISONVILLE TO RICHMOND TO SARGENT LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SATURATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING TODAY.