Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
301 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER CHALLENGING FORECAST. AT 08Z...ANOTHER MCS IS ONGOING OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEAST TEXAS. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY...THIS FEATURE IS
BACKBUILDING SW WITH STORMS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA. RADAR
ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PARTS OF LIBERTY AND
CHAMBERS COUNTIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WEST OF
THE MCS AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD PERSIST THIS MORNING. CONVECTIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS HELD TEMPS DOWN YESTERDAY AND HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT
CONVECTION THIS MORNING WILL ALSO HELP STABILIZE THE REGION AND
CLOUDS HOLD DOWN HEATING. A WELL DEFINED 500 MB TROF AXIS LIES
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. FEEL BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL LIE ALONG AND
JUST EAST OF THIS AXIS. HIGHEST PWS AND BEST UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE ALSO FAVORS EAST TEXAS TODAY. STILL IT IS DIFFICULT TO
FATHOM THAT THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECHARGE TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAIN OVER AREAS GETTING HAMMERED THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE
TO MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONES DUE TO HIGH PW AIR...SLOW STORM
MOTION AND TRAINING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TUES/WED AS HIGH PW AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE UPPER LOW/TROF AXIS WAVERS OVER TEXAS.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS THROUGH THURSDAY. RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD
AND AMPLIFY NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST WILL TREND DRIER AND WARMER
NEXT WEEKEND AND BEYOND. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      89  71  90  70  89 /  40  30  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              87  72  87  72  88 /  50  30  50  30  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            85  76  85  76  86 /  50  30  50  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1115 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-291300-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
1115 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS COASTAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
TONIGHT DUE TO AN UNSTABLE AND VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. DUE TO A
SLOW STORM MOTION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A GALVESTON TO BAYTOWN TO
CLEVELAND TO LIVINGSTON LINE. ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MONDAY...TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK AND STORM MOTIONS
SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. THOUGH AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE
LESS THAN 3/4 INCH EACH DAY...ISOLATED 4 TO 6 AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER CELLS DEVELOP AND BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY. STORMS OF THIS NATURE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.