Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM FOR ALL BUT KNOX AND
WALDO COUNTIES OF MAINE. SOME ACTION REQUIRING WARNINGS ALREADY
UNDERWAY WITH MAIN SHIELD OF ACTIVITY JUST INTO WESTERN VT AT THIS
TIME. SEE LATEST WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCES FOR DETAILED INFO.
OTHERWISE... THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...SO COUPLED WITH SOUPY AIR MASS...EXPECT FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS FOG TO EVENTUALLY BURN OFF OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...THOUGH ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD MAY IMPEDE BURNOFF OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TUES FRONT BEGINS
SOMETIME AFTER NOON OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND SLOWY WORKS ITS WAY
EASTWARD WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND EVENING TIME. AS FOR
GRIDS...WENT MOSTLY WITH BLEND OF GFS/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FOCUSING ON SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTS AT THE MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN REGARDING RAIN FROM COASTAL LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
STILL VERY EARLY TO TELL FINAL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WE WILL ADD A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE MONDAY FORECAST.

PICK OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. BARELY VFR WITH HAZE LIMITING VSBY TO 6 MILES OR
LESS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS DROP TO
IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT IN HAZY/HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SCA TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR MEZ023>028 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 511 IN EFFECT FOR MEZ007>009-
  MEZ012>014-MEZ018>027 UNTIL 10 PM.

NH...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR NHZ013-014 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 551 IN EFFECT FOR NHZ001>010-
  NHZ013-014 UNTIL 10 PM.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
&&

JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

ANZ150-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-202000-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
347 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE...
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
A LONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MAINE FROM VERMONT THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL THIS EVENING.

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
453 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

MEZ007-NHZ001-002-192130-
NORTHERN COOS-NORTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN COOS-
453 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT OXFORD COUNTY AND COOS COUNTY
THROUGH 530 PM EDT...

AT 453 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
7 MILES NORTHWEST OF DIXVILLE NOTCH TO 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
COLEBROOK TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND
AROUND STRATFORD...PITTSBURG...DIXVILLE NOTCH...CLARKSVILLE...
GUILDHALL...GROVETON...MILLSFIELD...STARK...DUMMER AND WILSONS MILLS
THROUGH 530 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER...EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 45 TO 55 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
508 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             LEBANON                 43.39N 70.85W
06/19/2006  E0.88 INCH       YORK               ME   PUBLIC

0451 PM     HAIL             LEBANON                 43.39N 70.85W
06/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       YORK               ME   PUBLIC

&&

JOHNC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...COR FOR EVENT LOCATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
508 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             LEBANON                 LAT/LONG MISSING
06/19/2006  E0.88 INCH       GRAFTON
                                                     PUBLIC

0451 PM     HAIL             LEBANON                 LAT/LONG MISSING
06/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAFTON
                                                     PUBLIC
&&

JOHNC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
518 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RANGELEY                44.97N 70.64W
06/19/2006                   FRANKLIN           ME   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN RANGELEY.

&&

HAYES

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