Severe Thunderstorm Warning 10, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 10 PM FOR ALL BUT KNOX AND
WALDO COUNTIES OF MAINE. SOME ACTION REQUIRING WARNINGS ALREADY
UNDERWAY WITH MAIN SHIELD OF ACTIVITY JUST INTO WESTERN VT AT THIS
TIME. SEE LATEST WATCH/WARNING ISSUANCES FOR DETAILED INFO.
OTHERWISE... THIS PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. THEREAFTER...SOME DEGREE OF CLEARING BEHIND THIS
ACTIVITY...SO COUPLED WITH SOUPY AIR MASS...EXPECT FOG FORMATION
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THIS FOG TO EVENTUALLY BURN OFF OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS...THOUGH ADVANCING CLOUD SHIELD MAY IMPEDE BURNOFF OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS. ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH TUES FRONT BEGINS
SOMETIME AFTER NOON OVER WESTERN SECTIONS AND SLOWY WORKS ITS WAY
EASTWARD WITH ACTIVITY BEGINNING AROUND EVENING TIME. AS FOR
GRIDS...WENT MOSTLY WITH BLEND OF GFS/MET GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...FOCUSING ON SEVERE WEATHER
PRODUCTS AT THE MOMENT...SO WILL KEEP THIS BRIEF. SEVERAL SHORT
WAVES CROSS THE REGION DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. THIS WILL BRING THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS DURING
THE MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.

MODELS VARY FROM RUN TO RUN REGARDING RAIN FROM COASTAL LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY.
STILL VERY EARLY TO TELL FINAL SOLUTION. FOR NOW WE WILL ADD A
CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE MONDAY FORECAST.

PICK OF THE WEEK APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE EVENING. BARELY VFR WITH HAZE LIMITING VSBY TO 6 MILES OR
LESS FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS DROP TO
IFR/LIFR OVERNIGHT IN HAZY/HUMID AIR MASS WITH DEVELOPMENT OF FOG.
SLOW TO IMPROVE ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...SCA TONIGHT.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR MEZ023>028 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 511 IN EFFECT FOR MEZ007>009-
  MEZ012>014-MEZ018>027 UNTIL 10 PM.

NH...AIR STAGNATION ADVISORY FOR NHZ013-014 UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY.
  ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH # 551 IN EFFECT FOR NHZ001>010-
  NHZ013-014 UNTIL 10 PM.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ANZ150 UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY.
&&

JC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
347 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

ANZ150-MEZ007>009-012>014-018>028-NHZ001>010-013-014-202000-
STONINGTON ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-NORTHERN OXFORD-
NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-
COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-
NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-
MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
347 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MAINE...
CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO THE
MERRIMACK RIVER MA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.
A LONG LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH INTO NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
WESTERN MAINE FROM VERMONT THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS WILL
CONTAIN DAMAGING WINDS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS...PLEASE CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WITH SEVERE
WEATHER REPORTS OF DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL THIS EVENING.

JC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
222 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

MEZ008-009-013-014-191900-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN
SOMERSET-
222 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY THROUGH 300 PM EDT...

AT 222 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 3 MILES EAST OF MADRID...OR
ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RANGELEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.
THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILLIPS...MADRID...REDINGTON...AVON...STRONG...SALEM...NEW
VINEYARD...NEW PORTLAND...KINGFIELD AND CARRABASSETT VALLEY THROUGH
300 PM EDT.

AS THESE STORMS PASS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AS WELL AS PEA
TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN 30 MINUTES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

MOVE INSIDE IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
225 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

MEZ018-019-023-024-191915-
COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-INTERIOR YORK-
225 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT YORK COUNTY AND CUMBERLAND COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM EDT...

AT 225 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM CENTERED OVER SANFORD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH. THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND
SPRINGVALE...SANFORD...ALFRED...WATERBORO...GOODWINS MILLS...
HOLLIS...SACO...BIDDEFORD...BUXTON AND OLD ORCHARD BEACH THROUGH 315
PM EDT.

AS THIS STORM PASSES...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AS WELL AS PEA
TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN 30 MINUTES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

MOVE INSIDE IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

HAYES

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
254 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

MEZ008-009-013-014-191945-
CENTRAL SOMERSET-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN
SOMERSET-
254 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY AND FRANKLIN
COUNTY THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

AT 254 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF NEW
VINEYARD...OR ABOUT 13 MILES NORTH OF FARMINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN
AND AROUND NEW VINEYARD...NEW PORTLAND...KINGFIELD...MADISON...
ANSON...SOLON...EMBDEN...MOSCOW...BINGHAM AND ATHENS THROUGH 345 PM
EDT.

AS THESE STORMS PASS...EXPECT WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH...AS WELL AS PEA
TO MARBLE SIZED HAIL. IN ADDITION...AS MUCH AS THREE-QUARTERS OF AN
INCH OF RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN 30 MINUTES...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN
LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

MOVE INSIDE IF STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION.

HAYES