Severe Thunderstorm Warning 80, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 206.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 259 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH LATE WEEK.  RUC SHOWS A SERIES OF VORT MAXES APPROACHING
THE CWFA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. WEAK RETURNS NOW SHOWING
ON MRX RADAR MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN VORT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MCS IS STILL OVER SRN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THIS MCS
WILL BE CROSSING THE NC MOUNTAINS BY MID DAY AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ON THE LEE SIDE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON THE
GENERAL POSITION OF THE TRACK OF THE COMPLEX ALTHOUGH THE GFS
TENDS TO TAKE IT A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE NAM. SPC HAS JUST PUT
OUR WESTERN AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THE STRONG TO SEVERE
NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH PRODUCING
SOME GOOD RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST. JUST BEFORE
ISSUANCE...STORMS ARE ERUPTING NORTHWEST OF MRX AND BECOMING QUITE
STRONG. THE MCS WILL FADE OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND AWAY FROM OUR
AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND A WET GROUND IN MANY AREAS WILL SPELL
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.  SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED LATE IN THE EVENING TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  THE FOG IN MAINTAINED WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE AREAS OF FOG
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.  BUFKIT
EVEN SHOWS SOME AREAS OF FOG FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.  WITH OUR RECENT DRY PERIOD...AT LEAST
THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN THIS WEEK.  THE
MOUNTAINS DO HAVE A LOWER RAINFALL DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR SO FAR THAN
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF A
CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND COAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEND
SUPPORT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC SCENARIO WHICH MOVES THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO A PRECIP CHANCE IS
KEPT THROUGH THAT DAY IN SPITE OF THE FASTER OPERATIONAL GFS DRYING
US OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THAT DAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A NEW ONE DIGGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL DRY US OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES
ACROSS THE LAKES ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPS
WERE KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION AND LOW CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE. THE NAM DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF IFR CEILINGS (PER THE MET
MOS) STARING AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPSTATE
(KAND). THESE LOW CLOUDS THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FORCING FOR THESE LOW
CLOUDS...IN THE FORM OF STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...IS HARD TO IGNORE. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...THOUGH
NOT QUITE AS LOW ON CIGS/VSBY FOR AS LONG. THEREFORE...I FOLLOWED
THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS LEAD AND HELD MOST SITES JUST A HAIR ABOVE IFR
FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHICH IS A GOOD BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING AS WEAK
DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WHICH SHOULD SPEND
A GOOD BIT OF THE DAY CLEARING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE OFF IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PCPN DEVELOPS...BUT THEY BOTH AGREE THAT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AT OR BEFORE 09 UTC AND
SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION BY 12 UTC. THIS HAS
BEEN REFLECTED IN THE TAFS WITH A LONG PERIOD OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AND PREVAILING SHOWERS...THOUGH THE ONLY SITE WHERE I CARRIED
THUNDER IS KAVL FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. I CERTAINLY THINK
OTHER SITES WILL SEE THUNDER AS WELL...BUT I DIDN/T WANT TO CARRY 8
HOURS OF THUNDER...SO I JUST INCLUDED A /CB/ GROUP IN MOST TAFS.

FINALLY...WHILE THIS IS OUTSIDE THE TAF PERIOD...IT IS WORTH NOTHING
THAT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE WIDESPREAD FOG THURSDAY MORNING. THE
EXTENT OF THE FOG WL DEPEND ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-201015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
514 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 206 WAS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE WATCH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED LATE
TODAY AND END THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM LATE
THURSDAY AND BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AGAIN HAS OUR WESTERN AREA...MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE LATE
THURSDAY AND LATE FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING...LATE THURSDAY AND
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY.

DEO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
703 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

GAZ017-018-026-028-029-NCZ034>037-054>057-066>072-082-SCZ004>014-019-
191300-
ABBEVILLE-ALEXANDER-ANDERSON-BURKE NC-CABARRUS-CALDWELL-CATAWBA-
CHEROKEE SC-CHESTER-CLEVELAND-DAVIE-ELBERT-FRANKLIN GA-GASTON-
GREATER GREENVILLE-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENWOOD-
HABERSHAM-HART-IREDELL-LAURENS SC-LINCOLN NC-MCDOWELL-MECKLENBURG-
POLK NC-ROWAN-RUTHERFORD-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-UNION NC-UNION SC-YORK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...CHARLOTTE...
CHESTER...CLARKESVILLE...CONCORD...ELBERTON...GAFFNEY...GASTONIA...
GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD...HARTWELL...HICKORY...LAURENS...LINCOLNTON...
MARION...MOCKSVILLE...MONROE...MORGANTON...ROCK HILL...
RUTHERFORDTON...SALISBURY...SHELBY...SPARTANBURG...STATESVILLE...
TOCCOA...TRYON...UNION
703 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOOTHILLS AND
PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

AT 650 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS SCATTERED ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COVERED THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND
THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS. MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WAS TO THE SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

THE STRONGEST STORMS WERE DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CLUSTER...
ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...FROM LANDRUM TO SPARTANBURG AND
ADAMSBURG...AND ALSO FROM ABBEVILLE TO DUE WEST AND GREENWOOD.
A LINE OF STRENGTHENING CELLS STRETCHED FROM NEAR CHERRYVILLE TO
KINGS MOUNTAIN...AND GASTONIA TO CLOVER AND ROCK HILL IN SOUTH
CAROLINA.

ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ATMOSPHERE THAT
SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE UPSTATE...NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE STATUS. THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS MORNING IS LARGE HAIL.

IN THE WAKE OF THE DEVELOPING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA...A WIDESPREAD AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTH CAROLINA
PIEDMONT FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS.
THE EASTERN PIEDMONT OF SOUTH CAROLINA COULD ALSO BE AFFECTED
THROUGH MID MORNING. RAINFALL COULD BE BRIEFLY HEAVY...AND COULD
EASILY RESULT IN PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS...AND IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING NORTHEAST GEORGIA...THE FAR WESTERN
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE AREAS ADJACENT
TO THE SAVANNAH RIVER THROUGH LATE MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
759 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HAIL             5 E HENDERSONVILLE      35.32N 82.37W
04/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       HENDERSON          NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            DIME SIZE HAIL BETWEEN HENDERSONVILLE AND EDNEYVILLE NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF SUGAR LOAF AND RIDGE ROAD.

&&

TBENTHAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
838 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 AM     HAIL             SW NEWLAND              36.09N 81.93W
04/19/2006  E0.75 INCH       AVERY              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            PENNY SIZE HAIL IN FRANKLIN COMMUNITY OFF 19E ABOUT 5
            SOUTHWEST OF NEWLAND.

&&

TBENTHAL

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