Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

UPDATED FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 206.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 259 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH LATE WEEK.  RUC SHOWS A SERIES OF VORT MAXES APPROACHING
THE CWFA FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING. WEAK RETURNS NOW SHOWING
ON MRX RADAR MOVING SOUTHEAST. THE MAIN VORT WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MCS IS STILL OVER SRN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA. THIS MCS
WILL BE CROSSING THE NC MOUNTAINS BY MID DAY AND SHOULD WEAKEN AS
IT MOVES ON THE LEE SIDE. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON THE
GENERAL POSITION OF THE TRACK OF THE COMPLEX ALTHOUGH THE GFS
TENDS TO TAKE IT A LITTLE MORE EAST THAN THE NAM. SPC HAS JUST PUT
OUR WESTERN AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE. THE STRONG TO SEVERE
NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH PRODUCING
SOME GOOD RAIN FOR THE MOUNTAINS AT LEAST. JUST BEFORE
ISSUANCE...STORMS ARE ERUPTING NORTHWEST OF MRX AND BECOMING QUITE
STRONG. THE MCS WILL FADE OUT AS IT MOVES SOUTH AND AWAY FROM OUR
AREA LATER TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT WIND AND A WET GROUND IN MANY AREAS WILL SPELL
GOOD CONDITIONS FOR FOG TO DEVELOP.  SOUNDINGS ON BUFKIT SHOW THE
CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED LATE IN THE EVENING TO AROUND
MIDNIGHT.  THE FOG IN MAINTAINED WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE AREAS OF FOG
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.  BUFKIT
EVEN SHOWS SOME AREAS OF FOG FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WELL...BUT
DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ADDING TO THE GRIDS FOR NOW.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY GRIDS TO INCREASE POPS
MAINLY FOR THE WESTERN AREAS.  WITH OUR RECENT DRY PERIOD...AT LEAST
THE MOUNTAINS WILL GET SOME MUCH NEEDED RAIN THIS WEEK.  THE
MOUNTAINS DO HAVE A LOWER RAINFALL DEFICIT FOR THE YEAR SO FAR THAN
THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF A
CLOSED LOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND NEW
ENGLAND COAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SPOKES OF
VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE BOTTOM OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LEND
SUPPORT TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. HAVE FOLLOWED THE HPC SCENARIO WHICH MOVES THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY...SO A PRECIP CHANCE IS
KEPT THROUGH THAT DAY IN SPITE OF THE FASTER OPERATIONAL GFS DRYING
US OUT IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH THAT IN MIND...HIGH TEMPS WERE ALSO
NUDGED UP A FEW DEGREES FOR THAT DAY. WEAK UPPER RIDGING IN BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW AND A NEW ONE DIGGING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL DRY US OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW DIVES
ACROSS THE LAKES ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP. TEMPS
WERE KEPT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION AND LOW CEILINGS ARE THE BIGGEST CONCERNS WITH THIS TAF
PACKAGE. THE NAM DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF IFR CEILINGS (PER THE MET
MOS) STARING AROUND SUNRISE OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE UPSTATE
(KAND). THESE LOW CLOUDS THEN SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE TAF SITES DURING THE MORNING HOURS. THE FORCING FOR THESE LOW
CLOUDS...IN THE FORM OF STRONG LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION...IS HARD TO IGNORE. THE GFS IS SIMILAR...THOUGH
NOT QUITE AS LOW ON CIGS/VSBY FOR AS LONG. THEREFORE...I FOLLOWED
THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS LEAD AND HELD MOST SITES JUST A HAIR ABOVE IFR
FOR MOST OF THE DAY WHICH IS A GOOD BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET
NUMBERS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR LATE THIS EVENING AS WEAK
DOWNSLOPE DEVELOPS BEHIND A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WHICH SHOULD SPEND
A GOOD BIT OF THE DAY CLEARING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THE NAM AND GFS ARE A LITTLE OFF IN WHERE THE
HEAVIEST PCPN DEVELOPS...BUT THEY BOTH AGREE THAT ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WL FIRE IN THE MOUNTAINS AT OR BEFORE 09 UTC AND
SPREAD QUICKLY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION BY 12 UTC. THIS HAS
BEEN REFLECTED IN THE TAFS WITH A LONG PERIOD OF VSBY RESTRICTIONS
AND PREVAILING SHOWERS...THOUGH THE ONLY SITE WHERE I CARRIED
THUNDER IS KAVL FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND SUNRISE. I CERTAINLY THINK
OTHER SITES WILL SEE THUNDER AS WELL...BUT I DIDN/T WANT TO CARRY 8
HOURS OF THUNDER...SO I JUST INCLUDED A /CB/ GROUP IN MOST TAFS.

FINALLY...WHILE THIS IS OUTSIDE THE TAF PERIOD...IT IS WORTH NOTHING
THAT WE WILL PROBABLY SEE WIDESPREAD FOG THURSDAY MORNING. THE
EXTENT OF THE FOG WL DEPEND ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DEO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
514 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-201015-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
514 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS MORNING AS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 206 WAS ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER. THE WATCH
EXPIRES AT 11 AM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SCATTERED LATE
TODAY AND END THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM LATE
THURSDAY AND BECOME NUMEROUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER AGAIN HAS OUR WESTERN AREA...MOUNTAINS AND
UPPER SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY...UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE LATE
THURSDAY AND LATE FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS MORNING...LATE THURSDAY AND
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY.

DEO

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
525 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ033-034-048>055-058-059-062>067-SCZ001>007-010-
191100-
ANDERSON-AVERY-BUNCOMBE-BURKE NC-CALDWELL-GRAHAM-GREATER GREENVILLE-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-HABERSHAM-
HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MACON NC-MADISON NC-MCDOWELL-MITCHELL NC-
NORTHERN JACKSON NC-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-POLK NC-RABUN-
RUTHERFORD-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SPARTANBURG-STEPHENS-SWAIN-
TRANSYLVANIA-YANCEY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDERSON...ASHEVILLE...BREVARD...
CHEROKEE...CLARKESVILLE...CLAYTON...FRANKLIN...GREENVILLE...
HENDERSONVILLE...MARION...MORGANTON...NEWLAND...RUTHERFORDTON...
SPARTANBURG...SPRUCE PINE...SYLVA...TOCCOA...TRYON...WAYNESVILLE
525 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST
GEORGIA THIS MORNING...

AT 520 AM...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A CLUSTER OF
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CAROLINA
MOUNTAINS FROM EAST TENNESSEE. THROUGH RUSH HOUR...EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST AT 25
MPH TOWARD THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BORDER. THE STORMS WILL
ALSO SHIFT A BIT MORE TO THE EAST...INTO THE WESTERN FOOTHILLS OF
NORTH CAROLINA. RADAR INDICATED EXTENSIVE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BACK INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
AFFECT THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN
FOOTHILLS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND VERY
GUSTY WINDS. AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER HAVE THE BEST
POTENTIAL OF SEEING ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL SHIFT SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK.

BY 7 AM...THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE GETTING NEAR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND GEORGIA BORDER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DOMINATE
THE MORNING HOURS FROM GREENVILLE AND SPARTANBURG...WEST TO THE
NORTHEAST GEORGIA MOUNTAINS.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT WED APR 19 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 AM     HAIL             CANTON                  35.55N 82.84W
04/19/2006  M0.25 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA-SIZE HAIL ACCUMULATED ON THE GROUND IN CANTON.
            NOTHING LARGER THAN PEA-SIZE NOTED AT THIS PARTICULAR
            LOCATION. VERY LITTLE WIND.

&&

BURRUS