Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
506 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
KGSP RADAR SHOWS TWO CELLS WITH CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL AT
09Z...ONE EXITING NEAR MORGANTON AND LENOIR AND ANOTHER ONE
ENTERING NEAR GAINESVILLE GA. ATMOSPHERE TO THE EAST OF THE
ACTIVITY IS LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED SEVERE...YET THE
STORMS LIVE ON. AFTER CONSULTATION WITH THE SPC...HAVE DECIDED THE
BEST WAY TO PLAY THIS ONE IS A LOCAL EXTENSION IN TIME FOR WW171
UNTIL 11Z FOR ALL COUNTIES IN THE WATCH TO THE EAST OF THE BROKEN
CONVECTIVE LINE. AT THE SAME TIME...WILL TAKE THE OPPORTUNITY TO
ADD ELBERT...ABBEVILLE...AND GREENWOOD TO THE WATCH SINCE THE
POTENTIAL IS THERE AND THEY WERE NEVER IN THE WATCH. THE NC
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND RABUN COUNTY GA WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
OF 09Z.

WILL ALSO TAKE THIS OPPORTUNITY TO TWEAK SOME POPS AND TEMPS.
UPDATE OUT MOMENTARILY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 251 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE ACTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONTAINED IN THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE ARRAY OF CELLS
LINED UP ALONG A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION AS IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WELL THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD UP AS IT MOVES
INTO LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE AIR. OF NOTE IS THE NEW DAY1 OUTLOOK
WHICH KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST AFTER 12Z. EXPECT
A NUMBER OF UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD
BE AROUND THE TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH EXPIRATION AROUND 5 AM.

THE MODELS SHOW DECENT UPPER FORCING BUT SOMEWHAT POOR INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS CYCLE. THE NAM APPEARS
TO HANG ONTO PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TOO LONG INTO THE
EVENING...SO THE GFS WAS FAVORED. WILL KEEP A CATEGORICAL POP
ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT EVENTUAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE DAY...SO POP WAS KEPT FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE WELL TO OUR EAST
IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS TRANQUIL IN COMPARISON AS
UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE AND THEY WERE RELATIVELY
MINOR...MAINLY A NUDGE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER TOWARD THE NEW MAV
GUIDANCE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS IT RIDGES
DOWN TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED.ISLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE
CARRIED WED EVE THRU THU AFTN FOR MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE TO ABOVE AVG FOR LATTER PART
OF WEEK. DECIDED TO ADD THE NEW DAY 7 TO THE GRIDS NOW IN CASE DAY
SHIFT IS BUSY LATER THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS DRY.

AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ADVERTISED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS PACKAGE
WITH THE APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS
ADVERTISED FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH BEST TIME FOR TSRA PROGD
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z FOR KAVL...AND 12Z TO 16Z AT KGSP/KAND/KCLT.
CONVECTION MAY BE AS LATE AS 13Z ARRIVING AT KCLT. WE ADVERTISED
SOMEWHAT IMPROVED VISIBILITIES BUT WITH STILL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ADVERTISE THUNDER CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME...THEY COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME AS LONG AS THE COLD FRONT
HAS YET TO PASS THE AREA. A CB WAS INCLUDED WITH CLOUD GROUP AT
KCLT AS LATE AS 22Z. SURFACE WIND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STIFF FROM
THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURES A TURN OF
THE SURFACE WIND TO NORTHWEST AT KAVL AND TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WIND AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES...WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AGAIN AS 85H
MOISTURE MAX PASSES OVER THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ADVERTISED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE
UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE ASHEVILLE         35.47N 82.42W
04/08/2006  M0 MPH           BUNCOMBE           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 KNOTS OR
            54 MPH...AND PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE ASHEVILLE         35.47N 82.42W
04/08/2006  M54 MPH           BUNCOMBE           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 KNOTS OR
            54 MPH...AND PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
434 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0408 AM     HAIL             CLAYTON                 34.88N 83.40W
04/08/2006  E0.88 INCH       RABUN              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL NEARLY NICKEL-SIZED FELL AT THE 911 CENTER IN
            CLAYTON.

0354 AM     HAIL             7 WSW CLAYTON           34.84N 83.51W
04/08/2006  E1.00 INCH       RABUN              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HAIL AS LARGE AS QUARTERS FELL AROUND LAKE BURTON.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 AM     HAIL             2 W MARION              35.68N 82.04W
04/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       MCDOWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY OFFICIAL RECEIVED REPORT FROM PUBLIC.

&&

KRENTZ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

GAZ026-028-029-SCZ005>007-010>012-019-081100-
ABBEVILLE-ANDERSON-ELBERT-FRANKLIN GA-GREATER GREENVILLE-
GREATER PICKENS-GREENWOOD-HART-LAURENS SC-SPARTANBURG-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ABBEVILLE...ANDERSON...ELBERTON...
GREENVILLE...GREENWOOD...HARTWELL...LAURENS...SPARTANBURG
508 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE FOOTHILLS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT OF FAR WESTERN UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH 7 AM...

AT 505 AM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING INTO NORTHEAST GEORGIA
AND FAR WESTERN UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND GUSTS. THE
STRONGEST STORM WILL MOVE SOUTH OF TOCCOA...TO CARNESVILLE...
HARTWELL AND TO BOWMAN BY 6 AM...THEN EAST TO SOUTHERN ANDERSON
COUNTY AND ABBEVILLE AND GREENWOOD COUNTIES THROUGH 7 AM.

STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN UPSTATE WERE WEAKENING BUT STILL FAIRLY
STRONG AS THEY MOVED OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE FOOTHILLS
NEAR WALHALLA AND WESTMINSTER. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
OVERSPREAD CLEMSON...PICKENS AND EASLEY BY 630 AM...AND TO BE
APPROACHING THE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG METRO AREA BY 7 OCLOCK.

THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH DAYBREAK COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE STATUS
AND NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO
OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
511 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 AM     HAIL             TOCCOA                  34.58N 83.32W
04/08/2006  E0.88 INCH       STEPHENS           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL COLLECTING ON THE GROUND IN TOCCOA.

&&

BURRUS