Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
251 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST OF THE ACTION FOR THIS FORECAST IS CONTAINED IN THE NEXT 18
HOURS OR SO. UPSTREAM RADARS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE ARRAY OF CELLS
LINED UP ALONG A BOUNDARY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION AS IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.
MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WELL THIS ACTIVITY WILL HOLD UP AS IT MOVES
INTO LESS AND LESS FAVORABLE AIR. OF NOTE IS THE NEW DAY1 OUTLOOK
WHICH KEEPS THE SLIGHT RISK TO OUR IMMEDIATE EAST AFTER 12Z. EXPECT
A NUMBER OF UPDATES EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FIRST OF WHICH SHOULD
BE AROUND THE TIME OF THE TORNADO WATCH EXPIRATION AROUND 5 AM.

THE MODELS SHOW DECENT UPPER FORCING BUT SOMEWHAT POOR INSTABILITY
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE FRONT THIS CYCLE. THE NAM APPEARS
TO HANG ONTO PRECIP BEHIND THE FRONT TOO LONG INTO THE
EVENING...SO THE GFS WAS FAVORED. WILL KEEP A CATEGORICAL POP
ACROSS THE EAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY. EXPECT EVENTUAL
REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE DAY...SO POP WAS KEPT FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE WEST FOR
THE AFTERNOON AND THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENING. ANY LINGERING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD FOR THE MOST PART BE WELL TO OUR EAST
IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM IS TRANQUIL IN COMPARISON AS
UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE WEEK. FEW CHANGES WERE MADE AND THEY WERE RELATIVELY
MINOR...MAINLY A NUDGE ONE WAY OR THE OTHER TOWARD THE NEW MAV
GUIDANCE.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS IT RIDGES
DOWN TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. A PASSING SHORTWAVE LATE
WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS MOISTURE STARVED.ISLIGHT CHC POPS WILL BE
CARRIED WED EVE THRU THU AFTN FOR MTNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS.
THEN TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY RISE TO ABOVE AVG FOR LATTER PART
OF WEEK. DECIDED TO ADD THE NEW DAY 7 TO THE GRIDS NOW IN CASE DAY
SHIFT IS BUSY LATER THIS MORNING. IT LOOKS DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ADVERTISED AT ALL TAF SITES THIS PACKAGE
WITH THE APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION...FOLLOWED BY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. MVFR VISIBILITIES/CEILINGS
ADVERTISED FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH BEST TIME FOR TSRA PROGD
BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z FOR KAVL...AND 12Z TO 16Z AT KGSP/KAND/KCLT.
CONVECTION MAY BE AS LATE AS 13Z ARRIVING AT KCLT. WE ADVERTISED
SOMEWHAT IMPROVED VISIBILITIES BUT WITH STILL MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE
AFTERNOON...AND ALTHOUGH WE DO NOT ADVERTISE THUNDER CHANCES DURING
THIS TIME...THEY COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME AS LONG AS THE COLD FRONT
HAS YET TO PASS THE AREA. A CB WAS INCLUDED WITH CLOUD GROUP AT
KCLT AS LATE AS 22Z. SURFACE WIND SHOULD REMAIN RATHER STIFF FROM
THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
GUSTS IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURES A TURN OF
THE SURFACE WIND TO NORTHWEST AT KAVL AND TO A NORTH OR NORTHEAST
WIND AT ALL OTHER TAF SITES...WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AGAIN AS 85H
MOISTURE MAX PASSES OVER THE REGION. NO PRECIPITATION IS
ADVERTISED DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE
UNFAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...SAB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
430 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-080830-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
430 AM EDT FRI APR 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPSTATE
SOUTH CAROLINA SATURDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. UNSTABLE AIR COMBINED WITH STRONG WIND FIELDS
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
FOR THE LATEST DETAILS...PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...
CAESPSGSP.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS CENTERS SHOULD MAKE SURE THAT
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE AWARE OF THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

LG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
254 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

NCZ051-059-062-063-080800-
MACON NC-NORTHERN JACKSON NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-SWAIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHEROKEE...FRANKLIN...SYLVA
254 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF
NORTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING...

A LARGE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS MACON...SWAIN AND
JACKSON COUNTIES THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING ALONG WITH PEA SIZE
HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM THROUGH 400 AM.

SBK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0327 AM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
04/08/2006  E0.75 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL COVERING THE GROUND TO A DEPTH OF A COUPLE OF
            INCHES.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
335 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0332 AM     HAIL             WAYNESVILLE             35.48N 83.00W
04/08/2006  E0.88 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BURRUS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-SCZ001-004-080900-
FRANKLIN GA-GREATER OCONEE-HABERSHAM-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-RABUN-STEPHENS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLARKESVILLE...CLAYTON...TOCCOA
345 AM EDT SAT APR 8 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND
OCONEE COUNTY OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH 5 AM...

AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM CLAYTON TO LAKE BURTON
AND WEST TO DAHLONEGA AND CLEVELAND IN NORTH GEORGIA WERE MOVING TO
THE NORTHEAST VERY QUICKLY...AS THE ENTIRE AREA SHIFTS VERY SLOWLY TO
THE EAST. THESE STORMS WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA AND OCONEE
MOUNTAINS BY 430 AM...AND THEN TO GREATER OCONEE AND THE GEORGIA
FOOTHILL AREAS AROUND TOCCOA AND BOYDVILLE BY 5 AM.

EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH...AS WELL AS PERIODS
OF HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAIN AS THESE THUNDERSTORMS ENTER NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE ASHEVILLE         35.47N 82.42W
04/08/2006  M0 MPH           BUNCOMBE           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 KNOTS OR
            54 MPH...AND PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

BURRUS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
417 AM EDT SAT APR 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 AM     TSTM WND GST     10 SE ASHEVILLE         35.47N 82.42W
04/08/2006  M54 MPH           BUNCOMBE           NC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            RETIRED NWS EMPLOYEE MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 47 KNOTS OR
            54 MPH...AND PEA-SIZED HAIL.

&&

BURRUS