Severe Thunderstorm Warning 497, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
659 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
UPDATE WILL REMOVE HEAT ADVISORY HEADLINES FROM ZONE FORECASTS.
CONVECTION IS SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO THE PIEDMONT THIS EVENING AS
BOUNDARY MAKES SLOW PROGRESS SOUTHEAST. WILL PUSH HIGHER LATE
EVENING RAIN CHANCES INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 223 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LINES OF SHRA AND TSRA HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER KY AND TN. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH
THE NC/TN LINE BY 21Z. I EXPECTED THE CONVECTION WILL BREAK APART
OVER THE CENTRAL MTNS...BUT SCT ACTIVITY SHOULD SURVIVE TO THE
FOOTHILLS EARLY THIS EVENING. A SECONDARY SECTION OF SHRA AND TSRA
HAS STARTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS OF SC. THE MIDLAND
ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 21Z
AND 0Z THIS EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH DRY AIR IN
THE MID LEVELS TO SUPPORT A FEW SVR WIND EVENTS. LARGE HAIL IN NOT
FAVORED DUE TO MARGINAL CAPE AND HIGH FRZ LEVELS.

INSTABILITY WILL QUICKLY POOL ACROSS THE CWA SAT AFTERNOON. THE
INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A H5 VORT WILL
RESULT IN EVEN COVERAGE SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING. I WILL ADVERTISE
COVERAGE SIMILAR TO THE HIGH CHC COVERAGE INDICATED BY MOS.

A FLAT UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
RETROGRADES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON MONDAY AS
AN UPPER TROUGH SETS UP ALONG THE EAST COAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT PERSISTS OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WHILE ANOTHER FRONT DROPS SOUTH TOWARD OUR AREA LATE
MONDAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHT PLOTS SHOW DEEP OMEGA REMAINING INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH LITTLE FORCING ALOFT...POPS WILL BE KEPT
IN THE HIGH CHANCE RANGE. WITH THE BOUNDARY REMAINING IN THE
AREA...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED AROUND THE CLOCK...WITH
RELATIVE LULLS AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES AS HEIGHTS FALL AND CLOUD COVER REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH NEAR
THE FRONT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ADVERTISE SOME DEGREE OF EAST COAST
TROUGHING AT THE UPPER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY... PRECEDED BY WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS OUR AREA BY WEDNESDAY...ACTING AS
A FOCUSING MECHANISM FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES. BY FRIDAY THE FRONT
DISSIPATES...WITH A RETURN TO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

AVIATION...
ONCE AGAIN...CONVECTION WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN FOR THE
FIRST 12 HRS. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN THE HIGHEST OVER THE MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A SECONDARY MAX OVER THE EASTERN PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING. MTN SHRA AND TSRA SHOULD BEGIN TO ERODE BY 23Z AS INITIAL
BAND OF CONVECTION MOVES EAST. CONVECTION OVER THE PIEDMONT MAY
LINGER UNTIL 6Z. BASED ON THIS MORNING/S OBS...I INCLUDED A MENTION
OF FOG AT KAND AND KAVL. AFTER 13Z...TERMINALS SHOULD BECOME VFR.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FOR GAZ026-028-029 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
NC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR NCZ071-082 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FOR SCZ006>014-019 UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-051000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
600 AM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN TODAY. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER
IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. PLEASE SEE THE SEVERE WEATHER
OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
724 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

NCZ057-072-050030-
CABARRUS-ROWAN-
724 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING CABARRUS AND ROWAN COUNTIES...

AT 718 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CLEVELAND...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
SALISBURY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SALISBURY BY 755 PM EDT.
  CHINA GROVE BY 815 PM EDT.
  5 MILES WEST OF ROCKWELL BY 830 PM EDT.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
730 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 S ICARD               35.67N 81.46W
08/04/2006                   BURKE              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A COUPLE OTHER TREES DOWN ON JOHNSON BRIDGE RD NEAR THE
            FIRST REPORT.

&&

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
731 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

SCZ002-004-005-050000-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
731 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING PICKENS COUNTIES...

AT 725 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NINE TIMES...OR 9 MILES WEST OF PICKENS...
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

SCZ010-050030-
ANDERSON-
747 PM EDT FRI AUG 4 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING ANDERSON COUNTY...

AT 747 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANDERSON...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
IN THE VICINITY OF THE CITY OF ANDERSON.

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
751 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 NE WALHALLA           34.83N 82.99W
08/04/2006                   OCONEE             SC   PUBLIC

            A COUPLE OF TREES DOWN NEAR RESIDENCE AT KEOWEE
            KEY...NEAR HWY 183.

&&

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
811 PM EDT FRI AUG 04 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     HAIL             2 NE CRUSO              35.44N 82.79W
08/04/2006  E0.75 INCH       HAYWOOD            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS DIME SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG