Severe Thunderstorm Warning 445, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MTN CONVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE CIRCA 21Z. OUTFLOWS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE. ANY STORM WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
FRIDAY...SFC WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT EAST ALONG IT. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS WESTERLY 850
MB FLOW PROVIDES SOME HIGH MTN TRIGGERING...AND A CONVECTIVE VORT
LOBE ARRIVES BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. AFTER A DIURNAL LULL
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRI NIGHT AND
SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWFA. ALTHOUGH CHANCE POPS WILL BE FEATURED FRI NIGHT...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BOTH BE OF SOME CONCERN ON SAT.

VARIOUS WEAK WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CWFA...SO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
DEEP LAYER DRYING WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER JET AXIS...WE WILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. BY THE MID-TO-LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...GIVING WAY TO RATHER FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL DEEP
CONVECTION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA COVERAGE RAPIDLY INCREASING IN THE MTNS WILL BRING THE BEST
VICINITY THUNDER CHANCE TO KAVL THROUGH THE EVENING. COVERAGE AND
OUTFLOWS WILL DRIVE ADDITIONAL FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WITH COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT
TAF LOCATIONS. MVFR VSBY FROM BR AND HZ IS LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR VSBY EXPECTED AT KAVL AND KHKY GIVEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. ANY FRIDAY CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG/LANE
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-210945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
539 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
446 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NCZ057-202145-
ROWAN-
446 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THREATEN ROWAN COUNTY...

AT 445 PM...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTHEAST
FROM TURNERSBURG TO STATESVILLE TO TROUTMAN. LOCALES ACROSS MUCH
OF ROWAN COUNTY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WIND THROUGH 6
PM.

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
453 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

SCZ006-010-202145-
ANDERSON-GREATER GREENVILLE-
453 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING NORTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND
GREENVILLE COUNTIES...

AT 450 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR PIEDMONT...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
GREENVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND
UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS AS THEY
MAY BE WASHED OUT. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY ALSO
RISE...THEREFORE SEEK HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

GMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
456 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TURNERSBURG             35.91N 80.81W
07/20/2006                   IREDELL            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY COMMS REPORTS 2 TREES DOWN IN THE NORTHERN PART OF
            THE COUNTY- ONE NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF BLACKWELDER RD
            AND HIGHWAY 21. ALSO A POWER LINE DOWN IN THE AREA

&&

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

GAZ018-202130-
STEPHENS-
500 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING STEPHENS COUNTY...

AT 459 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TOCCOA...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
15 MPH.

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

GMS/ESL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
508 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NCZ069>071-SCZ009-202215-
GASTON-LINCOLN-MECKLENBURG-YORK-
508 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO APPROACH METRO CHARLOTTE...

AT 5 PM...RADAR INDICATED A BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
BUILDING SOUTHEAST FROM LAKE NORMAN TO GASTONIA AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH THROUGH 630 PM. LOCALES ACROSS MUCH OF
MECKLENBURG...GASTON AND YORK COUNTIES SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL OR GUSTY
WIND THROUGH 630 PM.

CSH

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