Severe Thunderstorm Warning 442, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MTN CONVECTION IS ALREADY UNDERWAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IN THE CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG
THE BLUE RIDGE CIRCA 21Z. OUTFLOWS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MIGRATE SOUTHEAST INTO THE PIEDMONT THROUGH THE LATE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WITH LESS COVERAGE. ANY STORM WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY FOR MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT AS MID
LEVELS REMAIN DRY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
FRIDAY...SFC WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSIT EAST ALONG IT. THIS WILL
ALLOW MOISTURE TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE REGION AS WESTERLY 850
MB FLOW PROVIDES SOME HIGH MTN TRIGGERING...AND A CONVECTIVE VORT
LOBE ARRIVES BY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. AFTER A DIURNAL LULL
TONIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE RAPIDLY
DURING PEAK HEATING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALL ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FRI NIGHT AND
SAT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CWFA. ALTHOUGH CHANCE POPS WILL BE FEATURED FRI NIGHT...THE BEST
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED. WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND IMPROVING SHEAR PROFILES IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BOTH BE OF SOME CONCERN ON SAT.

VARIOUS WEAK WAVES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT WILL SLOW ITS
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE CWFA...SO HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE
DEEP LAYER DRYING WORKING ITS WAY INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER JET AXIS...WE WILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BY THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED
TO BE WELL TO OUR SOUTH...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WARRANTS A CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. BY THE MID-TO-LATTER PART OF
NEXT WEEK...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...GIVING WAY TO RATHER FLAT
RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CONUS. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
AROUND BERMUDA HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL DEEP
CONVECTION BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
TSRA COVERAGE RAPIDLY INCREASING IN THE MTNS WILL BRING THE BEST
VICINITY THUNDER CHANCE TO KAVL THROUGH THE EVENING. COVERAGE AND
OUTFLOWS WILL DRIVE ADDITIONAL FOOTHILL AND PIEDMONT CONVECTION
THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT WITH COVERAGE TOO SPARSE TO MENTION AT
TAF LOCATIONS. MVFR VSBY FROM BR AND HZ IS LIKELY AT ALL TAF SITES
TONIGHT...WITH TEMPO IFR VSBY EXPECTED AT KAVL AND KHKY GIVEN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES. ANY FRIDAY CONVECTION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER THE CURRENT OUTLOOK PERIOD.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...HG/LANE
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-210945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
539 AM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST IN FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NCZ503-504-202000-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
306 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO EFFECT BURKE COUNTY...

AT 3 PM RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTH INTO
BURKE COUNTY AND WILL BE AFFECTING THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH 4 PM.
AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY SLOW AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AREAS FROM MORGANTON
TO HICKORY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WIND.

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
306 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NCZ503-504-202000-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
306 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT BURKE COUNTY...

AT 3 PM RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTH INTO
BURKE COUNTY AND WILL BE AFFECTING THE I-40 CORRIDOR THROUGH 4 PM.
AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY SLOW AT ABOUT 15 MPH...AREAS FROM MORGANTON
TO HICKORY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WIND.

CSH/HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NCZ506>510-202030-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-EASTERN POLK-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
316 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40...

AT 315 PM RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTH FROM
MARION TO OLD FORT...AND ALSO SPREADING TOWARD LAKE LURE. AS STORMS
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AT ABOUT 15 MPH...LOCALES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MCDOWELL...WESTERN RUTHERFORD AND INTO POLK COUNTIES SHOULD BE
PREPARED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
PERHAPS SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WIND.

CSH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
331 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NCZ068-202045-
CLEVELAND-
331 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS CLEVELAND COUNTY...

AT 330 PM RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN BURKE COUNTY. AS STORMS MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH AT ABOUT 15 MPH...
LOCALES ACROSS NORTHERN CLEVELAND COUNTY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL
OR GUSTY WIND THROUGH 5 PM.

CSH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
347 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S LENOIR              35.83N 81.53W
07/20/2006                   CALDWELL           NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY COMMS REPORTS NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
            FROM LENOIR TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY

0330 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SE MORGANTON          35.68N 81.62W
07/20/2006                   BURKE              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY COMMS REPORTED TREES DOWN

&&

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
357 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

NCZ036-056-069-070-202130-
CATAWBA-GASTON-IREDELL-LINCOLN-
357 PM EDT THU JUL 20 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO THREATEN THE NORTH CAROLINA PIEDMONT...

AT 4 PM...RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS BUILDING SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST FROM TAYLORSVILLE TO HICKORY TO CASAR TO RUTHERFORDTON.
LOCALES ACROSS IREDELL...CATAWBA...LINCOLN AND GASTON COUNTIES
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL OR GUSTY WIND THROUGH 530 PM.

CSH