Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
252 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
SHRA AND TSRA COVERAGE HAS BEEN QUICK TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN MOISTURE RICH AIR MASS. A FEW BRIEF SVR EVENTS HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SVR TS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER THE UPPER SAVANNAH
RIVER VALLEY AND NC PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS. IN ADDITION...TRAINING
CELLS AND TS CLUSTERS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...ISO
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT REMAINS UNTIL 6Z.

I WILL TIME CATE COVERAGE OUT OF THE FA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
APPROACH AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. A FEW AREAS OF SCT SHRA AND
TSRA REMAIN POSSIBLE A FEW HRS AFTER SUNRISE SAT...HOWEVER...AFTER
MID MORNING THE CHCS FOR MEASURABLE WILL BE MINIMAL. I WILL USE A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS...50S PEAKS...MID 70S MTN
VALLEYS...AND L80S EAST OF THE MTNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
OTHER THAN A LINGERING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE TN LINE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH LOWER
DEWPOINTS. ON SUNDAY THE WRF MODEL MIXES DEWPOINTS INTO 40S ACROSS
MOST OF THE CWFA. NAM DEWPOINTS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT IN BOTH
CASES...DESPITE MUCH COOLER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER
LOW ROLLS IN FROM THE NORTH...THERE IS VERY LITTLE INSTABILITY
DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT HAVE LOWERED POPS INTO THE SLIGHT
CHANCE CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
IS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE I KEPT CHANCE POPS AS A FAIRLY
STRONG SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE MOUNTAINS LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WE WILL BE UNDER THE HEART OF THE COLD
TROUGH. HARD TO IMAGINE THAT WE WON/T SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS DURING
THE DAY MONDAY WITH THIS KIND OF PATTERN. MODEL DEWPOINTS RECOVER A
LITTLE AS WELL. THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A SURFACE TROF A LITTLE EAST
OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH MOST OF THE RESULTANT PRECIPITATION MORE
TOWARD RALEIGH/S FORECAST AREA. THE WRF HOWEVER IS A LITTLE FATHER
WEST WITH ITS PRECIPITATION...WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE BASED UPON
THE FEATURES ALOFT. AS A RESULT I HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG AND EAST OF GREENVILLE AND ASHEVILLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NCEP WENT WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE TUE-FRI PERIOD...WHICH
KEEPS A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN STATES. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
AND I STAYED CLOSE TO THEIR GUIDANCE GRIDS. THIS MEANS MOSTLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE
BETTER COVERAGE AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD...IT WILL BE IMPOSSIBLE
TO TIME SHORT WAVE FEATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE
THE CONVECTIVE THREAT. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA AND TSRA HAVE
ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE NC MTNS AND FOOTHILL AND OVER THE EASTERN
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS INSTABILITY...FORCING...AND STM MOTIONS INCREASE. I WILL
HANDLE SHRA AND TSRA WITH SHORT TERM TEMPOS.

ALMOST ALL THE MOS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT LOW CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BASED
ON THE PATTERN AND EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THE LIKELIHOOD OF
IFR TO MVFR SEEMS REASONABLE. HOWEVER...RECENT NIGHTTIME PASSAGES OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES HAS ALSO YIELDED PATCHES OF DENSE FOG AS WELL. I
WILL INTRODUCE A MENTION OF LATE LOW CLOUDS AND MARGINAL FOG FOR
NOW. FRONTAL PASSAGE SAT AM WILL VEER THE WINDS WITH LIFTING TO
CLEARING CLOUD COVER BY MID MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED/MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
523 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

HG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 PM EDT FRI JUN 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             GRANDFATHER MOUNTAIN    36.10N 81.85W
06/02/2006  E0.25 INCH       AVERY              NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL, DOWNPOURS, AND CLOUD TO
            GROUND LIGHTNING.

&&

TBENTHAL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
310 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

NCZ048-052-053-064-065-022010-
BUNCOMBE-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-MADISON-TRANSYLVANIA-
310 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM
CANTON AND WAYNESVILLE TO BREVARD... ASHEVILLE... AND HENDERSONVILLE
DURING THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN... LIGHTNING... AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WIND AND
SMALL HAIL AS THEY TRAVEL TOWARD THE EAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE HIGH WATER LEVELS IN CREEKS...
STREAMS... AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADS THAT
ARE COVERED WITH WATER.

LGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

NCZ035>037-022000-
ALEXANDER-DAVIE-IREDELL-
325 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...
LIGHTNING... AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL BY 4 PM IN
ALEXANDER... NORTHERN IREDELL... AND DAVIE COUNTIES.  THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD PRODUCE HIGH WATER LEVELS IN POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.  DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADS THAT ARE COVERED WITH WATER.

LGL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
326 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

NCZ082-022000-
UNION-
326 PM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING UNION COUNTY...

AT 321 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PAGELAND...OR 10 MILES SOUTH
OF MONROE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY
AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID
USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES.

CSH/RWH