Severe Thunderstorm Warning 264, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1121 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
MARGINAL TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A LOW
LCL/S WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON. AN APPROACHING MID
LEVEL TROF AND IMPROVED LLVL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD TO NUMEROUS SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. KGSP 88D HAS
ALREADY DETECTED A FEW RETURNS OVER THE TN/NC LINE. BY NOON...EXPECT
MTN CONVECTION TO BEGIN OVER THE PEAKS AND MOVE EAST. BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...CIN SHOULD ERODE ENOUGH THAT THE LFC SHOULD BE
ACHIEVED ANYWHERE ACROSS THE CWA. THE AIR MASS WOULD IS NOT
SUPPORTIVE FOR SVR TS DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...PW/S OVER 1.5 AND
K-INDEX AROUND 35 WOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

TRENDS AND LATEST MOS SUPPORTS AN INCREASE IN TEMPS BY A FEW
DEGREES. I ALSO INCREASED POPS OVER THE MTNS ALONG WITH CLOUD
COVER. MINOR CHANGES MADE TO DWPTS AND WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 530 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006/

SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
WILL UPDATE TO UPGRADE NRN NC PIEDMONT AND NC FOOTHILLS TO PATCHY
DENSE FOG. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY SINCE CONSIDERABLE PRECIPITATION FELL
EARLIER TONIGHT AND CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPARSE IN THESE LOCATIONS. LIGHT
MIXING ON SW FLOW SHOULD IMPROVE...HOWEVER...AND CLOUDINESS IS
EXPECTED TO FILL BACK IN.

PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 234 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH...WHICH MAY HAVE BEEN ENHANCED BY A SEABREEZE FRONT WORKING
WELL INLAND THROUGH THE LIGHT ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. THE EXISTING
COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY EXPAND TODAY AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN
THE OH VALLEY SLIPS SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY CONSOLIDATES WITH THE
LEE TROUGH ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS BY TONIGHT. STEERING FLOW WILL
STEADILY IMPROVE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THE HYDROLOGY THREAT...EVEN AS COVERAGE
IMPROVES. THE DEEPEST FORCING SHOULD BE IN THE VICINITY TONIGHT AS
THE BOUNDARY MOVES IN...UPPER JETLET DIVERGENCE IMPROVES...AND 850
TO 500 MB DPVA INCREASES AHEAD OF THE MAIN VORTICITY LOBE.

THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WORK SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE COASTAL
PLAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER
DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN SAGS SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH THE
REGION SHOULD BE IN A LOWER PRECIPITABLE WATER AIRMASS WITH DRIER
SFC DEWPOINTS BY SUNDAY...A VERY STRONG 500 MB COLD POOL WILL PUSH
STEEP LAPSE RATES BACK IN FROM THE NW. CAPPING IN THE PROFILES AT
650 MB SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES CONFINED MAINLY TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE MEDIUM RANGE AS MODELS CONTINUE TO
FEATURE AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DIURNALLY FAVORED SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE
POPS WILL BE CONTINUED.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BRING ADDITIONAL SHRA TO KAND THROUGH THE
PREDAWN BUT THE TAF SITES WERE KEPT DRY THROUGH 18Z. PERIODS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY/CEILING RESTRICTIONS WERE INDICATED IN THE 10Z TO 14Z
TIME FRAME AT MOST TAF SITES. ONCE THE MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND MIST
HAVE BURNED OFF...VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE BUT WITH LOW VFR CEILINGS.
SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATER TODAY THAN IN ANY OF THE
PREVIOUS DAYS...SO ALL TAFS FEATURE LONG PERIODS OF VCSH/VCTS.
KAND/KAVL HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF OBSERVING A
VISIBILITY-LIMITING PRECIPITATION PHENOMENON...WITH VCTS INDICATED
FOR MOST OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND TEMPOS FOR TSRA INDICATED 20 TO
23Z AT KAND...AND 22 TO 01Z AT KAVL. THE OUTLOOK PERIOD FEATURES
CATEGORICAL MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS WITH SHRA AT KAVL/KAND...WHILE
VCSH CONTINUES AT KGSP. KCLT IS KEPT DRY THROUGH THE OUTLOOK...AS
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY THERE TOWARD THE END OF THE NEXT 12Z
TAF PACKAGE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-030930-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
523 AM EDT FRI JUN 2 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY TODAY WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.

HG