Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM. CONVECTION IS TAKING ITS
OWN SWEET TIME TO DEVELOP...BUT EXPECT INITIATION TO TAKE PLACE BY
19Z AS THE LAST OF THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS IS
WORKED OUT OF THE REGION. WHAT IS SOMEWHAT TROUBLING IS THE MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... WHICH SHOULD INCREASE OUR POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THIS MOVES EAST.
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE
TO DECIDE IF LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ANYWHERE...PROBABLY EAST OF
THE MTNS...BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET AT LEAST A CHANCE THROUGH
THE EVENING. BEYOND THAT...WILL CUT BACK OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.
THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TRIGGER SOME DEEP CONVECTION...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE CARRIED THERE. DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR HIGHEST YET THIS SEASON...90 OR
ABOVE IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT QUITE READY TO GO AS HIGH AS THE MET
GUIDANCE THOUGH.

THE STRNGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A DRY AND PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL TAKES UP RESISDENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS THE OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM UNDER
THE RIDGE ALOFT...TEMPERED SLIGHLY BE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
COMPONENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE KEY FEATURE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE STRONG EAST COAST UPPER
RIDGE THAT PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...THEN BEGINS BREAKING DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...REACHING THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. A DRY AND PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND SMALL POPS WILL BE SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WARRANTING CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE...THEN COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS LIMITED WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDES FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN SHORT TERM TAF CONCERN IS CONVECTION. AT 17Z...SOME LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION HAD YET TO BE OVERCOME WHILE A LARGE PATCH OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD POP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT ANY TAF SITE TO INCLUDE MORE THAN JUST A VCSH AND CB CLOUD
GROUP. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER SHOULD BRING GUSTY SW WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL
THIN AFTER SUNSET AGAIN AS THE MAIN VORT LOBE MOVES EAST. KAVL HAS
THE BEST CHANCE AT MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL OTHER SITES WILL BE
KEPT VFR FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE CHANGED DEPENDING ON WHICH SITES GET
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS VFR WITH DOWNSLOPE
KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS AT BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/PM
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-270945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
539 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY. PLEASE SEE
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     HAIL             3 NE WACO               35.39N 81.39W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL.

0445 PM     HAIL             CROUSE                  35.42N 81.31W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     TALLULAH FALLS          34.72N 83.38W
05/26/2006                   RABUN              GA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MANY TREES DOWN REPORTED BY THE POLICE CHIEF.

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHARLOTTE               35.20N 80.83W
05/26/2006                   MECKLENBURG        NC   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN IN DOWNTOWN CHARLOTTE REPORTED BY POLICE
            DEPARTMENT.

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SSW CLAYTON           34.76N 83.46W
05/26/2006                   RABUN              GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREES DOWN AT LAKE RABUN REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
541 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     HAIL             9 ESE CHARLOTTE         35.15N 80.69W
05/26/2006  E0.88 INCH       MECKLENBURG        NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL-SIZED HAIL FELL AT INTERECTION OF HIGHWAY 51 AND
            485.

0533 PM     HAIL             CROUSE                  35.42N 81.31W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
605 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             2 S CROUSE              35.39N 81.31W
05/26/2006  E1.00 INCH       GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER-SIZED HAIL ON THE GASTON SIDE OF THE BORDER
            REPORTED BY SPOTTER.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     13 N MONROE             35.18N 80.54W
05/26/2006                   UNION              NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            COUNTY 911 CENTER RELAYED A REPORT OF A TREE DOWN AT
            INTERSECTION OF MOORESVILLE ROAD AND ACADEMY ROAD IN
            NORTHERN PART OF COUNTY.

0537 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 NE ANDERSON           34.61N 82.53W
05/26/2006                   ANDERSON           SC   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED TREES

            DOWN AT THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 81 AND INTERSTATE 85.

&&

OUTLAW

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