Severe Thunderstorm Warning 243, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
220 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE NEAR TERM. CONVECTION IS TAKING ITS
OWN SWEET TIME TO DEVELOP...BUT EXPECT INITIATION TO TAKE PLACE BY
19Z AS THE LAST OF THE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND DEBRIS CLOUDS IS
WORKED OUT OF THE REGION. WHAT IS SOMEWHAT TROUBLING IS THE MID
LEVEL DRYING MOVING ACROSS THE MTNS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... WHICH SHOULD INCREASE OUR POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS IN THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE PIEDMONT AS THIS MOVES EAST.
FOR THE FIRST PERIOD...WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL RIGHT BEFORE ISSUANCE
TO DECIDE IF LIKELY POPS ARE WARRANTED ANYWHERE...PROBABLY EAST OF
THE MTNS...BUT ALL LOCATIONS WILL GET AT LEAST A CHANCE THROUGH
THE EVENING. BEYOND THAT...WILL CUT BACK OVERNIGHT AS FORCING
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF AREA.

FOR SATURDAY...UPPER/SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST/NORTH.
THE GFS APPEARS OVERDONE WITH PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...BUT
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH FOR
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING TO TRIGGER SOME DEEP CONVECTION...SO A
SLIGHT CHANCE WILL BE CARRIED THERE. DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS
SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REACH THEIR HIGHEST YET THIS SEASON...90 OR
ABOVE IN MANY LOCATIONS. NOT QUITE READY TO GO AS HIGH AS THE MET
GUIDANCE THOUGH.

THE STRNGTHENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTROL THE WEATHER FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A DRY AND PERSISTENT SURFACE
RIDGE WILL TAKES UP RESISDENCE ALONG THE EAST COAST. SOME CLOUDS MAY
LINGER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES AS THE OLD SURFACE
BOUNDARY REMAINS OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL NOT
BE CARRIED IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM UNDER
THE RIDGE ALOFT...TEMPERED SLIGHLY BE AN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
COMPONENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE KEY FEATURE OF THE MEDIUM RANGE IS THE STRONG EAST COAST UPPER
RIDGE THAT PERSISTS INTO TUESDAY...THEN BEGINS BREAKING DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AN UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...REACHING THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY. A DRY AND PERSISTENT
SURFACE RIDGE RESIDES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH MOISTURE GENERALLY REMAINING WEST OF THE
APPALACHIANS. THE GFS SHOWS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE SHOULD REMAIN WELL
EAST OF THE AREA. ON THURSDAY MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN THE
MOUNTAINS...AND SMALL POPS WILL BE SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY...
WARRANTING CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT WARM UNDER THE
UPPER RIDGE...THEN COOL AS HEIGHTS FALL AND EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
PERSISTS. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER AS LIMITED WARM ADVECTION
PRECEDES FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN SHORT TERM TAF CONCERN IS CONVECTION. AT 17Z...SOME LOW LEVEL
INHIBITION HAD YET TO BE OVERCOME WHILE A LARGE PATCH OF DEBRIS
CLOUDS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD POP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH AT ANY TAF SITE TO INCLUDE MORE THAN JUST A VCSH AND CB CLOUD
GROUP. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY STRONG WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED
LAYER SHOULD BRING GUSTY SW WINDS DOWN TO THE GROUND. CLOUDS WILL
THIN AFTER SUNSET AGAIN AS THE MAIN VORT LOBE MOVES EAST. KAVL HAS
THE BEST CHANCE AT MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT ALL OTHER SITES WILL BE
KEPT VFR FOR NOW. THIS WILL BE CHANGED DEPENDING ON WHICH SITES GET
RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS VFR WITH DOWNSLOPE
KEEPING THE LOW CLOUDS AT BAY AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JAT/PM
LONG TERM...JAT
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
539 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-270945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
539 AM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AREA TODAY. PLEASE SEE
THE SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK...CAESPSGSP FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY LATER TODAY.

LANE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

SCZ007>009-262030-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-YORK-
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECTING CHESNEE...AS WELL AS
CHEROKEE AND YORK COUNTIES...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAYO...OR 11 MILES WEST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF THICKETTY BY 345 PM EDT.
  GAFFNEY BY 350 PM EDT.
  BLACKSBURG BY 405 PM EDT.
  CLOVER BY 430 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED HEADLINE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

SCZ007>009-262030-
CHEROKEE-SPARTANBURG-YORK-
337 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CHESNEE...AS WELL AS CHEROKEE
AND YORK COUNTIES...

AT 335 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MAYO...OR 11 MILES WEST OF GAFFNEY...MOVING
EAST AT 35 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  6 MILES NORTH OF THICKETTY BY 345 PM EDT.
  GAFFNEY BY 350 PM EDT.
  BLACKSBURG BY 405 PM EDT.
  CLOVER BY 430 PM EDT.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

44

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
440 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CHERRYVILLE             35.38N 81.38W
05/26/2006                   GASTON             NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 TREES DOWN OF 12 INCHES DIAMETER AT THE KENTUCKY FRIED
            CHICKEN IN CHERRYVILLE. MARBLE-SIZED HAIL.

0400 PM     TSTM WND DMG     11 W LINCOLNTON         35.48N 81.44W
05/26/2006                   LINCOLN            NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A TREE LIMB OF 15 INCH DIAMETER OFF A BRADFORD PARE TREE.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
445 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SW LINCOLNTON         35.43N 81.30W
05/26/2006                   LINCOLN            NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            ONE TREE DOWN 4 SW OF LINCOLNTON.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N DALLAS              35.36N 81.18W
05/26/2006                   GASTON             NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 321 NORTH OF
            DALLAS.

0451 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N GREER               35.01N 82.23W
05/26/2006                   GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE ON MOBILE HOME.

&&

OUTLAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTION ON THE DATE AND TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
459 PM EDT FRI MAY 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 N GREER               35.01N 82.23W
05/25/2006                   GREENVILLE         SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE ON MOBILE HOME.

&&

THE PERSON WHO REPORTED THIS MISTAKENLY MADE THE IMPRESSION
THAT THE TREE FELL ON THE MOBILE HOME TODAY.  HE CALLED BACK TO
CORRECT THAT SINCE IT FELL ON THURSDAY.

OUTLAW