Severe Thunderstorm Warning 140, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST GA...UPSTATE OF SC...AND THE CLT METRO AREA
WILL REACH 15-25 MPH AFTER 15Z THIS MORNING. I WILL POST A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY TO HIGHLIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 313 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
W/V SHOWS THE MID LEVEL JET RUNNING FROM MISSOURI SE TO THE SRN
APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. CWA WILL REMAIN IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF
THE JET EARLY THIS MORNING...SUPPORTING LONG LIVED TSRA CLUSTERS
ALONG AND AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE SE TODAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS
DEVELOP A LEE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE FA THIS MORNING AS FLOW TURNS
DOWNSLOPE AND HEIGHTS FALL. NAM12 FOR THIS AFTERNOON LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONTAL WAVE. FOR EXAMPLE...THE
FORECAST SOUNDING FOR KCLT SHOWS A CAPE GREATER THAN 2K J/KG...TOTAL
TOTALS 56...SWEAT GREATER THAN 450...AND A WBZ AROUND 8K FT. SEVERAL
STORMS SHOULD PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WIND ALONG AND
EAST I-85 AND I-77 TODAY. I WILL ISSUE AN SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
TO HIGHLIGHT TIMING AND SEVERE POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...H85 TEMPERATURES FALL FROM 10C AT 0Z MON TO 1C AT 12Z. I
USED A BLEND OF MOS TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...WITH FAVOR GIVEN
TO THE COOLER SOLUTIONS. MTN TEMPS BY 12Z MON SHOULD RANGE FROM L40S
VALLEYS TO LOW TO MID 30S ON THE PEAKS. NAM QPF IS VERY LIGHT AND I
WILL LIMIT POPS TO THE TN/NC STATE LINE FOR MAINLY SHRA. I WILL
INCLUDE A FEW PIXELS OF SHRASN FOR NRN MTN ELEVATIONS AT OR ABOVE 5K
FT.

MON AND TUES...CLOSED H5 LOW TRACKS SLOWLY NE AND DEEP MOISTURE
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND WEST OF THE MTNS. I WILL FAVOR MTNS POPS
WITH JUST A FEW PERIODS OF SCT SHRA EAST. I WILL CONTINUE
FORECAST OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

AVIATION...
SPOKES OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE MAIN PROBLEM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONVECTION AHEAD OF ONE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNRISE. FOR THE MOST PART...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR OUTSIDE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. AFTER A BRIEF LULL...EXPECT CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE...WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY WILL LIE. RELATIVELY HIGH BASED STRATOCU ONCE AGAIN MAY
BECOME BROKEN TEMPORARILY IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS DEVELOP IN
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ONCE AGAIN. A SURFACE BOUNDARY FINALLY PUSH
ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE IN THE DAY...ENDING THE PRECIP
THREAT AND SHIFTING THE WIND TO A MORE NW DIRECTION.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 FROM 11 AM
     SUNDAY TO 6 PM SUNDAY.
NC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR NCZ069>072-082 FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6
     PM SUNDAY.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR SCZ001>014-019 FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 6
     PM SUNDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-140945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
545 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOW AND MID 30S MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...ISOLATED AREAS AROUND 5000
FEET MAY SEE A FEW PERIODS OF MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1054 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1046 PM     HAIL             1 S ROBBINSVILLE        35.31N 83.81W
05/13/2006  E0.50 INCH       GRAHAM             NC   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1129 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1124 PM     HAIL             POLKVILLE               35.42N 81.64W
05/13/2006  E0.25 INCH       CLEVELAND          NC   PUBLIC

&&

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1159 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1149 PM     HAIL             3 NNE SHELBY            35.33N 81.52W
05/13/2006  E0.50 INCH       CLEVELAND          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            OFFICER ENCOUNTERED MARBLE SIZED HAIL AT THE INTERSECTION
            OF HIGHWAY 18 AND 180.

&&

NED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

NCZ051-058-140600-
GRAHAM-SWAIN-
1256 AM EDT SUN MAY 14 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...

AT 1255 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO WESTERN GRAHAM COUNTY. THE STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS GRAHAM
COUNTY...REACHING ROBBINSVILLE AROUND 110 AM AND STECOAH BY
120 AM AT THE LATEST. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL CAN BE EXPECTED AS THE STORMS PASS. IF THE
STORMS HOLD TOGETHER...THEY WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SWAIN COUNTY BETWEEN 120 AM AND 140 AM.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL RADIO AND TELEVISION OR
CABLE TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

MOORE

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