Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
823 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...
UPDATING ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER
345. I/VE ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TOMORROW AS
IT APPEARS THAT THE NAM IS GENERATING EXCESSIVELY HIGH DEWPOINTS
AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 208 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DEEP UPPER LOW OVER SW GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE SE
OVERNIGHT. AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL SWING SW TOWARD CWA THIS EVE
AND HAVE CHANCE POPS OVER MTNS...SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE UNTIL
MIDNIGHT...THEN CHANCE POPS ACROSS CWA. AS UPPER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH
ON SUN...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL TRAVERSE THE CWA...BRINGING
LIKELY POPS TO MOST OF THE AREA. AS SFC BOUNDARY MOVES E DURG THE
AFTN...DRYER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE SW AND HAVE BEGUN TO REDUCE POPS
FROM THE SW LATE SUN AFTN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE REGION EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE
EXTENDED...WITH MEDIUM RANGE ENSEMBLES DEPICTING THE UPPER CLOSED
LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES COMES CLOSE TO THE CWFA SUNDAY
NITE BEFORE BEGINNING A NORTHWARD RETREAT BY TUESDAY. MOISTURE
RATHER LIMITED SO PAINTED BEST CHANCES OF RAIN IN THE NORTH...CLOSE
TO THE EVENUTAL UPPER LOW TRACK...WITH LOWEST CHANCES SOUTH AND WEST.
UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH...JUST IN TIME FOR YET ANOTHER
UPPER TROF TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AND KEEPING CWFA UNSETTLED. POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 30 TO 40 RANGE...WITH SOUTHWEST AREAS HAVING LOWST
CHANCES WITH HIGHEST NORTH AND WEST. TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL EXPECTED. FRONT EXPECTED FOR FROPA WEDNESDAY
NITE...THEN AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
GUSTY SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND SS. COULD SEE ISOLD
CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTN BUT CHANCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS
ATTM. MODELS DO SHOW WEAK INSTABILITY LATER SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH
ALL SITES AFT 00Z. WITH UPPER WAVE FCST TO APPROACH...VCSH IS
CONTINUED ALL SITES. EXPECT A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS TO PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. HAVE INCLUDED SCT020 TO
INDICATE SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND SUN AM.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
545 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-140945-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
545 AM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE
LOW AND MID 30S MONDAY MORNING. ALSO...ISOLATED AREAS AROUND 5000
FEET MAY SEE A FEW PERIODS OF MIXED SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

SCZ001-002-004-005-132030-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
345 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING OCONEE AND PICKENS COUNTIES...

AT 336 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WALHALLA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

DICARLO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
846 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

NCZ053-503>506-140145-
BUNCOMBE-BURKE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL
MOUNTAINS-
846 PM EDT SAT MAY 13 2006

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS AFFECTING BUNCOMBE...BURKE AND MCDOWELL
COUNTIES...

AT 844 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SWANNANOA...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF
ASHEVILLE. THIS STORM WAS MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

MOTHBALL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

DICARLO