Severe Thunderstorm Warning 111, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
316 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND LARGE SCALE LIFT IN ADVANCE OF
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SW TROUGH IS RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. FREEZING LEVELS ARE QUITE LOW (10-11 KFT)...SO ANY HIGH
REFLECTIVITY UPDRAFT CORE UP TO ABOUT 20KFT IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK AT BEST DOWNDRAFT
CAPE...WHILE BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW/HIGH 0-1 KM SRH IS OVER THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS...SO CHANCES FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES APPEAR
QUITE LOW ATTM.

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID-EVENING-
ISH...AS THE TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...TAKING THE FRONT
ALONG WITH IT...AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION.
SCOURING OF THE SURFACE MOISTURE WILL BE DELAYED SOMEWHAT ACCORDING
TO THE SHORT TERM MODELS...SO SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...ESP IN THE EAST.

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER IN STORE FOR A CHANGE ON SUNDAY...AS A DRY
WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...AS THE
WEAK FRONT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE TENN VALLEY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...
SOME MOISTURE BANKS UP ALONG THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SOME CONVECTION TO INITIATE IN THAT AREA. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY
SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ALONG THE TENN BORDER.

MDLS AGREE THAT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LINGERS INTO MONDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE...THEY DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH
AND EXACT LOCATION OF THE ZONE. NAM PUSHES THE ZONE ALL THE WAY TO
THE SAVANNAH RIVER BY 18Z MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING IT NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA. GFS LEAVES IT ALONG THE NRN CWFA BORDER BEFORE WASHING
IT OUT/MOVING IT NORTH OF OUR AREA MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE DECIDED TO
GO CLOSER TO THE GFS REPRESENTATION...ESP GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
HIGH POP THE MET GUIDANCE SHOWS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. WITH THE
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW AND LACK OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THINK
THE MET POPS OVERDONE. ALSO...THE NAM INSTABILITY LIKELY OVERDONE
AS WELL GIVEN THE UNREALISTICALLY HIGH MET DEW POINTS OVER THE
AREA. THE NAM HAS HAD AN ESPECIALLY POOR TRACK RECORD WITH DEW
POINTS SO FAR THIS SPRING. WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP OVER THE MTNS...KEPT SLIGHT CHC POP
CONFINED TO THESE AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY MORNING.

DRY FCST MON AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE AREA. AGAIN MODELS DIFFER ON THE DETAILS...BUT APPEARS PRECIP
SPREADS BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE CHC POP MOST
AREAS BY THEN. TEMPS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL EACH PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH BROAD TROFFINESS OVER THE
CAROLINAS FOR WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY. SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE
FLOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT OUT OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY. COLD HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY AND SLIDES SLOWLY EAST THRU THE PERIOD.
ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE
SPEED OF THE FIRST SYSTEM...HAVE DROPPED POP WED NIGHT...WITH DRY
FCST CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. SLIGHT CHC POP FRI NITE AND SATURDAY
AS THE SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM NEARS. AIR MASS BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT
QUITE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...AND COULD LEAD TO FROST PROBLEMS
FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS THURSDAY MORNING. AIR MASS MODERATES TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE CHANCES FOR DEEP
CONVECTION OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDER...AND ATTENDANT MVFR CIGS/VISBY WILL BE EAST OF THE MTNS...
AND GENERALLY HAVE TEMPOS AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH 21Z OR SO.
OTHERWISE...HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG
DEVELOPING THIS EVENING...AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND DEEP LAYER
DRYING OCCURS...EXCEPT NEAR THE SURFACE...AS UPSTREAM SURFACE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL RELATIVELY JUICY. IN FACT...ETAKIT SOUNDINGS ARE
QUITE FOGGY LOOKING LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WILL CARRY MVFR FOG
AT MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE MTNS FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH ABOUT
SUNRISE. SURFACE MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT RATHER QUICKLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JDL/RWH
LONG TERM...RWH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
325 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-
SCZ001>014-019-230730-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-CALDWELL-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-MCDOWELL-BURKE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-POLK-RUTHERFORD-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION NC-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
325 AM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TODAY. SOME STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY...SPREADING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
226 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0226 PM     HAIL             PACOLET MILLS           34.92N 81.75W
04/22/2006  E0.88 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

&&

HG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
237 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0220 PM     HAIL             PACOLET MILLS           34.92N 81.74W
04/22/2006  U1.00 INCH       SPARTANBURG        SC   PUBLIC

&&

GMS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
240 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

SCZ008-221915-
CHEROKEE SC-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...GAFFNEY
240 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT SOUTHERN CHEROKEE COUNTY THROUGH
300 PM...

AT 236 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES EAST OF PACOLET MILLS...MOVING EAST AT
15 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FROM 5 MILES SOUTH
OF THICKETTY TO SARATT THROUGH 330 PM.

EXPECT PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 40
MPH WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
352 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

NCZ056-069-222030-
CATAWBA-LINCOLN NC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HICKORY...LINCOLNTON
352 PM EDT SAT APR 22 2006

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM TO AFFECT WESTERN LINCOLN COUNTY
THROUGH 430 PM...

AT 350 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF VALE...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL
LOCATIONS IN THE WESTERN END OF THE COUNTY...WEST OF A LINE
FROM LINCOLNTON TO CROUSE.

TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THIS THUNDERSTORM.

HG

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