Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
228 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN TODAY...RESULTING IN
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CAN BE
SEEN AT 250MB AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STANDS OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
ENTRANCE REGION SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT.

ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR WHICH WRAPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN FL. BY 18 UTC THE WRF HAS RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWFA. THE GFS IS SIMILAR THOUGH NOT QUITE AS DRY. LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN
AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH HEATING WE EXPERIENCE. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CUT
DOWN ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWFA. MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO TAKE POPS DOWN INTO THE CHANCE
CAT FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT THE NEIGHBORS DO.

BY THIS EVENING THE PWS CLIMB ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COUPLE WEAK BUT
VERY WET SHORT WAVES THAT LIFT OUT OF THE GULF. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BACK OUT OF THE SE...AND FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL ZONES.
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY A HYBRID
TROPICAL/SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN LOW THAT BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST.
IF A CORE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THIS LOW...IT COULD CUT OFF
SOME INFLOW.

REGARDLESS...CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING CERTAINLY WARRANT
KEEPING UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT AND WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
HOW MUCH DRYING THERE IS ALOFT...AND THE MODEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
NEAR TERM CONCERNS FOR THE 06 UTC TAF PACKAGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WILL BE A MIX OF LOW CIGS/VSBY AND SHOWER CVRG. WIDESPREAD
UPSLOPE TROPICAL SHOWER THREAT...OCNLY LWRING VSBYS TO MVFR...WILL
EXIST FOR THE FIRST SVRL HOURS FOR KGSP/KAND/KAVL UNTIL SOME MEAN
DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SPREADS WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS AND MAINLY MVFR BR...THANKS TO RICH BLYR RH AND ESELY
FLOW...IS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING...
BEFORE THE EXPECTED GRADUAL MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BY MIDDAY. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
WITH JUST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TSTM CVRG THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY EXPECT LATER PACKAGES WOULD NEED AT LEAST AN INCREASE TO
TEMPO PROBABILITY FOR TSRA...IF NOT CATEGORICAL PROBS. RAMP CIGS
BACK DOWNWARD INTO MVFR RANGE AND CONTINUE WITH A VCSH MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SSELY TROPICAL
AIRMASS IS LIKELY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM
     TUESDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-501>510
     UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY
LONG TERM...MCAVOY
AVIATION...CSH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
458 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

NCZ503>506-261015-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
458 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.NOW...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINFALL...WILL BE SPREADING
NORTH INTO BURKE AND CALDWELL COUNTIES THROUGH 630 AM. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO INCHES AND RESULT IN RISES ON
AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS...AND CAUSE FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
PLEASE BE WARY OF THE DANGERS OF FLOOD WATERS...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

CSH