Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

000 
WGUS72 KGSP 261924
FFSGSP

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
322 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

NCC149-161-261932-
RUTHERFORD NC-POLK NC-
322 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR POLK AND RUTHERFORD COUNTIES IS 
CANCELLED...

FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ROCKY BROAD RIVER IN THE LAKE LURE 
AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT THE RIVER IS RAPIDLY 
RECEDING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS 
AFTERNOON...BUT THE IMMEDIATE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING 
HAS SUBSIDED. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
CANCELLED.  
 
LAT...LON 3554 8184 3553 8221 3521 8236 3519 8189

$$
LANE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1204 PM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

.SHORT TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
BACKBUILDING THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS. FFC SOUNDING INDICATES THAT
THE PW ARE JUST BELOW 2...CAPES OVER 1K J/KG...AND K-INDEX NEAR
40. VWP FROM KGSP SHOW SOUTH FLOW FROM THE GROUND TO 35K FEET WITH
SPEED STRENGTHENING. HEAVY AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER NE
GA...THE NRN UPSTATE...AND THE NC MTNS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE FL TROPICAL LOW THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE
REGION OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD MIGRATE EAST INTO THE PIEDMONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
 /ISSUED 228 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006/

SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN TODAY...RESULTING IN
INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS CAN BE
SEEN AT 250MB AS THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET STANDS OVER THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THE
ENTRANCE REGION SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION...AND WE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DRY OUT.

ONE INTERESTING FEATURE TO KEEP AN EYE ON TODAY IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR WHICH WRAPS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW OVER SRN FL. BY 18 UTC THE WRF HAS RH
VALUES AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER OVER THE EASTERN
PART OF THE CWFA. THE GFS IS SIMILAR THOUGH NOT QUITE AS DRY. LOW
LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE QUITE HIGH...AND THIS MAY RESULT IN
AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEPENDING
UPON HOW MUCH HEATING WE EXPERIENCE. THIS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO CUT
DOWN ON CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARD SUNRISE OVER THE EASTERN PART
OF THE CWFA. MIGHT EVEN BE ABLE TO TAKE POPS DOWN INTO THE CHANCE
CAT FOR A WHILE THIS MORNING...DEPENDING ON WHAT THE NEIGHBORS DO.

BY THIS EVENING THE PWS CLIMB ONCE AGAIN AHEAD OF A COUPLE WEAK BUT
VERY WET SHORT WAVES THAT LIFT OUT OF THE GULF. LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL BACK OUT OF THE SE...AND FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE MOUNTAIN AND FOOTHILL ZONES.
PRECIPITATION COULD BE SOMEWHAT INHIBITED BY A HYBRID
TROPICAL/SYNOPTICALLY DRIVEN LOW THAT BEGINS TO MOVE UP THE COAST.
IF A CORE OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS WITH THIS LOW...IT COULD CUT OFF
SOME INFLOW.

REGARDLESS...CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING CERTAINLY WARRANT
KEEPING UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

WE SHOULD DRY OUT AND WARM UP ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
HOW MUCH DRYING THERE IS ALOFT...AND THE MODEST SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
STATES...WE MAY SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

AVIATION...
NEAR TERM CONCERNS FOR THE 06 UTC TAF PACKAGE DURING THE PRE-DAWN
HOURS WILL BE A MIX OF LOW CIGS/VSBY AND SHOWER CVRG. WIDESPREAD
UPSLOPE TROPICAL SHOWER THREAT...OCNLY LWRING VSBYS TO MVFR...WILL
EXIST FOR THE FIRST SVRL HOURS FOR KGSP/KAND/KAVL UNTIL SOME MEAN
DRYING NOTED ON WV IMAGERY SPREADS WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF
IFR CIGS AND MAINLY MVFR BR...THANKS TO RICH BLYR RH AND ESELY
FLOW...IS EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH ABOUT MID-MORNING...
BEFORE THE EXPECTED GRADUAL MIX OUT TO VFR CIGS BY MIDDAY. FOR THE
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY THE MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH
WITH JUST A VCTS MENTION AT ALL LOCATIONS...BUT GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD
OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD TSTM CVRG THIS AFTERNOON...WOULD ALMOST
CERTAINLY EXPECT LATER PACKAGES WOULD NEED AT LEAST AN INCREASE TO
TEMPO PROBABILITY FOR TSRA...IF NOT CATEGORICAL PROBS. RAMP CIGS
BACK DOWNWARD INTO MVFR RANGE AND CONTINUE WITH A VCSH MENTION THIS
EVENING AS ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SSELY TROPICAL
AIRMASS IS LIKELY.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029 UNTIL 6 AM
     TUESDAY.
NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-501>510
     UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
SC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SCZ001>014-019 UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
606 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-271000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-ALEXANDER-
IREDELL-DAVIE-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-
CABARRUS-UNION NC-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-
LAURENS-UNION SC-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
606 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A
FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS OVER THE
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING. A FEW
OF THESE WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR THE PURPOSE
OF REPORTING STREAM LEVELS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

MCAVOY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1023 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0956 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W LAKE LURE           35.44N 82.24W
06/26/2006                   RUTHERFORD         NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            EVACUATIONS AT CHIMNEY ROCK. ROADS CLOSED AND CAMPGROUNDS
            EVACUATED.

&&

DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1032 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1018 AM     FLASH FLOOD      BAT CAVE                35.45N 82.28W
06/26/2006                   HENDERSON          NC   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            EVACUATIONS OF CAMPGROUNDS ALONG THE RIVERSIDE DRIVE
            CLOSED.

&&

PTANNER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1049 AM EDT MON JUN 26 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 W TRYON               35.21N 82.27W
06/26/2006                   POLK               NC   EMERGENCY MNGR

            HIGHWAY 176 IS CLOSED DUE TO MUD AND ROCK SLIDES. MOST OF
            THE SLIDES HAVE OCCURRED BETWEEN SALUDA AND TRYON. GREEN
            COVE ROAD IS ALSO CLOSED DUE TO A ROCK SLIDE.

&&

NED