Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

June 19, 2006Jackson County, Michigan

NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 19, 2006, 12:44 PM EDT for Jackson County, Michigan. It was in force for 31 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jun 19, 2006, 12:44 PM EDT (16:44 UTC)
Expired: Jun 19, 2006, 1:15 PM EDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Rapids, MI
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Jackson County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 93 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 16:46 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 19, 12:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 12:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 97 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1144 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -25 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 701 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 24 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 0 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Rapids, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 19, 11:58 AM EDT, 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 19, 11:58 AM EDT, 46 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1158 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.UPDATED...

THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS WILL THERE BE A DECENT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON?  MY SHORT ANSWER THAT WHILE IT
IS POSSIBLE IT IS NOT A SURE BET.

OUR LIMITING FACTOR IS DEEP MOISTURE FOR THE STORMS. THERE IS MORE
THAN ENOUGH INSTABILITY.  AT 15Z THERE WAS 1500 J/KG OF 100 MB MEAN
PARCEL CAPE WITH NO CIN OVER MOST OF SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOWER MICHIGAN. THESE VALUE FALL QUICKLY TO UNDER 250 J/KG WEST OF
US-131. THE SFC BASED LI VALUES ARE IN THE -6 TO -9 RANGE AT 15Z.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE WAS AROUND 6.5 C/KM OVER SE LOWER MI AND
UNDER 6.0 C/KM NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 96. THE
15Z RUC 0 HOUR FORECAST SHOWS A POCKET OF HIGHER DEW POINTS NEAR AND
SOUTH OF I-96 TO US-131 THEN MUCH DRIER AIR NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AND
NORTH OF I-96.  THE MODELS MOVE THIS MOISTURE TO SE LOWER BY 18Z. IT
WAS IN THAT POCKET OF MOISTURE THE ALLOWED THAT CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOPED NEAR AZO AROUND 14Z.  ADD TO THIS TWO
MORE FACTORS... THE COLD FRONT WAS NEAR THE LAKE SHORE AT 15Z AS
SEEN ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE LOOP.  THERE WERE NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES AS SEEN ON THE WATER VAPOR LOOPS.  WHAT MATTERS TO GRR IS
THERE IS AN AREA OF DNVA MOVING INTO WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THEN SOME DPVA WITH HIGHER AND DEEPER MEAN RH BEHIND
THE FRONT AFTER 21Z.  HOWEVER BY THE TIME THAT GETS HERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GONE. THUS I FEEL THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
OVER OUR EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT I HAVE THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS AND LOWEST POP NEAR
THE LAKE SHORE.

AS FOR SEVERE... THE FREEZING LEVEL IS NEAR 11500 FT AND THE -20C IS
NEAR 20500 FEET... WE HAVE UP TO 400 J/KG IN THE -10 TO -20 LAYER SO
CLEARLY IS IS POSSIBLE CONSIDERING THE EQ LEVEL NEAR 30000 FT.
MOSTLY IT WILL BE EAST OF GRAND RAPIDS AND SOUTH OF I-96.  THE
THREAT SHOULD BE OVER BY 3 PM OR SO.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

WDM

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 19, 12:10 PM EDT, 34 minutes before

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In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 19, 12:20 PM EDT, 24 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Rapids, MI issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 19, 11:54 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Jackson	51 min
Jun 19, 1:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Jackson	28 min
Jun 19, 2:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GRR	Ingham	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.