Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

000 
WWUS53 KGRR 191621
SVSGRR

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1221 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

MIC075-191645-
/O.CON.KGRR.SV.W.0049.000000T0000Z-060619T1645Z/
JACKSON MI-
1221 PM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JACKSON COUNTY
UNTIL 1245 PM EDT...

AT 1216 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL.  THIS
STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BROOKLINE...OR ABOUT NEAR VANDERCOOK LAKE...
AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ACKERSON LAKE...MICHIGAN CENTER...WOODLAWN ORCHARDS AND CLARK LAKE
  BY 1230 PM EDT
  GILLETTS BY 1235 PM EDT
  OAK POINT...NAPOLEON ARPT...NAPOLEON AND LEONI BY 1240 PM EDT
  NORVELL BY 1245 PM EDT

PENNY SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN CONCORD AT 1205 PM EDT.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF A NICKEL IS EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM. SEEK
SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4210 8415 4211 8470 4214 8470 4215 8472
      4229 8472 4234 8433 4234 8425 4236 8415

$$

JK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
356 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

.SHORT TERM...
LATEST IR LOOP SHOWS SLOW CLEARING FROM THE WEST. SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY OVER THE EASTERN CWA AND PT CLDY OVER WISCONSIN. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORT WAVE MOVING SOUTH INTO MINNESOTA. SFC OBS
REVEAL A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM A LOW IN EASTERN ONTARIO WEST
THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. FORECAST CONCERNS TODAY DEAL WITH PCPN
CHANCES TODAY AND AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

WE/LL START OFF SEEING SOME SUNSHINE THIS MORNING. BUT GIVEN THE
RENEWED CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN CURRENTLY...WE CAN/T RULE OUT A
PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. SO WE/LL GO WITH A 30 POP THIS MORNING.
WHAT SUNSHINE WE SEE WILL ALLOW THE ATM TO DESTABILIZE A BIT TOWARD
NOON.  BY THEN THE SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST. LI/S REMAIN BELOW 0C THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY OVER THE FAR SOUTH. THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN
APPROACHING JET MAX WILL ALSO HAVE THE MOST INFLUENCE OVER THE FAR
SOUTH. WE DONT EXPECT SEVERE WX TODAY AS THE HIGHEST SHEAR VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CWA.

THE FRONT WILL BE THROUGH THE CWA BY THIS EVENING. SKIES SHOULD
CLEAR OUT AND TEMPS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER THE CWA. BY TUESDAY MORNING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
STRETCH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEST TO A LOW IN KANSAS. WE/LL BE UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE HERE. SHOULD SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AS CU ROUTINE ONLY
SUPPORTS SCATTERED CU.

WE/LL REALLY HAVE TO WATCH THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES BACK
NORTH LATER TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. A 50 KT LLJ WILL DEVELOP IN
THE PLAINS TUESDAY AND INTERSECT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN IOWA AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT. THICKNESS COUNTOURS WOULD STEER A
DEVELOPING MCS TOWARD THE CWA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY INCREASES
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LI/S NEAR -4C BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY...0-1KM BULK SHEAR VALUES ARE PROGD TO BE CLOSE TO 50
KTS. THE NOSE OF THE LLJ IS ALSO PROGD TO MOVE INTO THE CWA
OVERNIGHT WHICH BRINGS A STRONG 850 MB DEWPOINT GRADIENT WITH IT
AFTER 06Z. ADDITIONALLY...0-3KM HELICITY IS PROGD OVER 300 M2/S2.
THIS WOULD SUGGEST RIGHT MOVING SUPERCELLS. IF AN MCS DEVELOPS
UPSTREAM...IT WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUPPORT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
CWA. ON WEDNESDAY...THE SUPPORTING LOW MOVES THROUGH THE CWA AND
DRAGS THE FRONT WITH IT. THE DEGREE OF SEVERITY OF ANY TSRA WILL
DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE ATM CAN REVCOVER AFTER THE PREVIOUS NIGHT/S
CONVECTION. WE/LL CARRY A HIGH CHC OF TSRA. INSTABILITY IS VERY HIGH
WEDNESDAY WITH LI/S -6 TO -8C AND CAPE NEAR 3K J/KG.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
FIRST CONCERN IS HANDLING POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AFTER WHAT SHOULD BE
AN ACTIVE WEDNESDAY. HAVE OPTED TO TAPER POPS W-E OVERNIGHT BASED ON
LATEST GFS GUIDANCE. FOR THURSDAY...LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY AND
CHANGED THUNDER WORDING TO RAIN AS GFS PROGS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL BE BROUGHT IN ALOFT AHEAD OF A POTENTIAL
VORTICITY MAX...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER LIFTED INDICES REMAIN STRONGLY
POSITIVE. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR THURSDAY NIGHT COULD
SQUEEZE OUT SOME PRECIP...SO WE LEFT IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. AFTER
THIS TIME...LEFT THE DRY FORECAST ALONE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE.

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

93 TJT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
538 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-200945-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
538 AM EDT MON JUN 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEY SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS THEY MOVE EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS DEVELOP OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS FOR ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TJT