Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
351 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION EXISTS ACROSS THE GRR FORECAST
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY IS QUITE STRONG AT THE MOMENT WITH
LI/S NEAR -8 AND CAPE VALUES TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CWA. WILL BE MONITORING STORMS OBVIOUSLY THIS EVENING FOR PULSE
SEVERE. LOOKING FOR CORES ALOFT AND TRYING TO ANTICIPATE WET
MICROBURSTS CONTAINING SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

TONIGHT WILL FEATURE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION...BEING MOST PREVALENT
THIS EVENING GIVEN THE DIURNAL PULSE NATURE OF THE STORMS. UPSTREAM
COOL FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PRESS IN OVERNIGHT WHICH MAY FURTHER
INITIATE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE. A WAVE ON THE FRONT THEN
MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TOMORROW
WHICH SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ONCE AGAIN.
SEVERE THREAT TOMORROW WILL BE DICTATED BY THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
IN PLACE AND THEREFORE THE INSTABILITY THAT MAY DEVELOP. FRONT WILL
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD TAPER OFF. THUNDER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE BETTER INSTABILITY SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. LINGERED A
SHOWER MENTION IN THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY MORNING...THEN EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WE ARE SEEING HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN A PATTERN TRANSITION FROM RIDGING
ALOFT TO TROUGHING ALOFT...BASED ON BETTER RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF
THE GFS...AS WELL AS CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS
TRANSLATES TO A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...WITH POPS SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHER POPS STILL LOOK ON TRACK FOR MONDAY AS BOTH GFS
AND ECMWF SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE CURRENT FORECASTS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DUKE TURNAGE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
630 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-311000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
630 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD RESULT IN GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
MOTORISTS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND THE THREAT
OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY EITHER.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY ONCE THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. A DRY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST... THEN A THREAT OF STORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER RAINFALL REPORTS
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. YOU CAN SUBMIT WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS
ANYTIME ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRR/SPOTTER.

MEADE

MIC025-301745-
/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0023.060530T1714Z-060530T1745Z/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS
HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...UNTIL 145 PM EDT

AT 110 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BROWNLEE PARK TO BURLINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PENNFIELD AND BENTLEYS CORNERS AROUND 120 PM EDT
  WRIGHTS CORNERS...CLARENDON AND BURLEIGH CORNERS AROUND 125 PM EDT
  MARSHALL AROUND 130 PM EDT
  ECKFORD AND HOMER AROUND 135 PM EDT
  MARENGO AND BABCOCK AROUND 145 PM EDT

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4242 8473 4215 8473 4214 8472 4208 8472
      4208 8529 4240 8529 4242 8530

COBB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
356 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BATTLE CREEK            42.30N 85.23W
05/30/2006                   CALHOUN            MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN IN THE CITY OF BATTLE CREEK.

&&

BEACHLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
434 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     HAIL             1 NE GRANDVILLE         42.91N 85.74W
05/30/2006  E0.75 INCH       KENT               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

DUKE