Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Grand Rapids, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
1235 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

.SHORT TERM...
COLD FRONT IS STILL LOCATED UPSTREAM AT MIDDAY...EXTENDING NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN AND IOWA. SUMMER LIKE
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE GRR FORECAST AREA AFTER DAYS OF
SOUTHERLY FLOW STREAMING NORTH FROM THE GULF. RANDOM CONVECTION
CONTINUES IN THIS STEAMY AIRMASS. RANDOM NATURE OF THE CONVECTION IS
TIED TO THE LACK OF SHEAR IN THE VERTICAL. 0-6KM SHEAR IS PROGD TO
BASICALLY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SO...RANDOM
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE. CELLS ARE FIRING ON
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES FROM CLOUD COVER FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION AND OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION SHOULD PEAK WITH
THE DIURNAL CYCLE...WITH BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THE
MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. CAPE VALUES ARE RECOVERING TO
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG WITH LI/S DROPPING TO AROUND -6. WITH
ADDITIONAL HEATING AND ADVECTION OF HIGHER DEW POINTS FROM INDIANA
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO BUILD FURTHER. RAN WITH LIKELY POPS ALL
AREAS.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

DUKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
630 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

LMZ844>849-MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-311000-
ST JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN-SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND-
HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN-GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL-
WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER-PENTWATER TO MANISTEE-MASON-LAKE-OSCEOLA-
CLARE-OCEANA-NEWAYGO-MECOSTA-ISABELLA-MUSKEGON-MONTCALM-GRATIOT-
OTTAWA-KENT-IONIA-CLINTON-ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-
KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON-
630 AM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST LOWER
MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS WHICH COULD RESULT IN GREATLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR
MOTORISTS AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLOODING.

AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM OR TWO WITH NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 60 MPH CANNOT BE RULED OUT TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT LIKELY. STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE
NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM STALLED OVER THE AREA...AND THE THREAT
OF TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL CONTINUE.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WEDNESDAY EITHER.

COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY ONCE THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL WIDELY
SCATTERED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AFFECTS THE REGION. A DRY WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST... THEN A THREAT OF STORMS WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED. HOWEVER RAINFALL REPORTS
WOULD BE GREATLY APPRECIATED. YOU CAN SUBMIT WEATHER SPOTTER REPORTS
ANYTIME ON OUR WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GRR/SPOTTER.

MEADE

MIC025-301745-
/O.NEW.KGRR.SV.W.0023.060530T1714Z-060530T1745Z/

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS
HAS ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR...
CALHOUN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL MICHIGAN...UNTIL 145 PM EDT

AT 110 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
BROKEN LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO
DIME SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
BROWNLEE PARK TO BURLINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  PENNFIELD AND BENTLEYS CORNERS AROUND 120 PM EDT
  WRIGHTS CORNERS...CLARENDON AND BURLEIGH CORNERS AROUND 125 PM EDT
  MARSHALL AROUND 130 PM EDT
  ECKFORD AND HOMER AROUND 135 PM EDT
  MARENGO AND BABCOCK AROUND 145 PM EDT

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE IN SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. STAY INSIDE AWAY
FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4242 8473 4215 8473 4214 8472 4208 8472
      4208 8529 4240 8529 4242 8530

COBB