Severe Thunderstorm Warning 95, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 172320
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
619 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

WIC087-139-172330-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-060717T2330Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-WINNEBAGO WI-
619 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR WINNEBAGO AND OUTAGAMIE COUNTIES...

AT 618 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.  THESE STORMS WERE
LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM HORTONVILLE TO MACKVILLE TO
KAUKAUNA...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF
APPLETON TO 6 MILES NORTH OF APPLETON TO 9 MILES EAST OF APPLETON...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FREEDOM...BINGHAMTON AND STEPHENSVILLE BY 630 PM...

WIND DAMAGE WITH THIS STORM WILL OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF ANY RAIN OR
LIGHTNING. DO NOT WAIT FOR THE SOUND OF THUNDER BEFORE TAKING COVER.
SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY AND ASK
THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

LAT...LON 4446 8839 4444 8821 4435 8819 4425 8819
      4425 8839 4424 8841 4415 8841 4427 8856
      4429 8872 4437 8872

$$

MG

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 172331
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
629 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

WIC087-139-172339-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0095.000000T0000Z-060717T2330Z/
OUTAGAMIE WI-WINNEBAGO WI-
629 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WINNEBAGO AND OUTAGAMIE
COUNTIES EXPIRES AT 630 PM CDT...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

LAT...LON 4446 8839 4444 8821 4435 8819 4425 8819
      4425 8839 4424 8841 4415 8841 4427 8856
      4429 8872 4437 8872

$$

MG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

12Z SOUNDINGS AT GRB/MPX/DVN...AHEAD A THE COLD FRONT...ALL SHOWED STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OFF THE SURFACE.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF SHEAR BELOW THE CAP...ESPECIALLY AT GRB AND DVN.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 20Z SHOWED A SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND A SLIGHT DROP IN DEW POINTS...WEST OF A LINE FROM
THE FOX VALLEY TO LAKE WINNEBAGO. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER AND DEW
POINTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AS WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST ALONG AND
BEHIND A LINE FROM MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS. CAPE VALUES WERE QUITE
HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOTHING WAS FIRING ALONG IT UNTIL ALMOST
20Z. EARLIER IN THE DAY SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPED WELL SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THOSE
STORMS. THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINE
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MODELS HAVE THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD INTO WISCONSIN.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.  FORECAST FOCUS ON
PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS AGREED QUITE WELL THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE A FASTER DEPARTURE ON THURDAY SO WILL WORD MORNING MENTION ON
THURSDAY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE REGIME AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
 UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MDM RANGE MODELS INCONSISTENT WITH PCPN CHC BUT WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE AN AFTN CHC FOR SATURDAY...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE THE REST OF
THE FCST DRY DUE TO NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO FOCUS ON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMS AGAIN FOR THE MID WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MIDWEEK FRONT AND INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS.

DD
&&

.GRB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MG/TDH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-181700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM WAUSAUKEE TO NEKOOSA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-181700-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
520 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             POY SIPPI               44.13N 89.00W
07/17/2006  E0.75 INCH       WAUSHARA           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
523 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0516 PM     HAIL             POY SIPPI               44.13N 89.00W
07/17/2006  E0.75 INCH       WAUSHARA           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MIKEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
536 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0531 PM     HAIL             2 S POY SIPPI           44.10N 89.00W
07/17/2006  M2.00 INCH       WAUSHARA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
550 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             MANITOWOC               44.08N 87.66W
07/17/2006  M2.00 INCH       MANITOWOC          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             WINCHESTER              44.20N 88.66W
07/17/2006  M1.00 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 50 MPH WIND GUST NEAR INTERSECTION OF BROOKS
            ROAD AND HWY 45

&&

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
555 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

WIZ022-036>040-045-048>050-180000-
DOOR-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
INCLUDING STURGEON BAY...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON AND TWO RIVERS
555 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR
THE EARLY EVENING. AT 550 PM...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM
NEAR MANITOWOC TO JUST EAST OF WAUTOMA. SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE LINE
WERE SEVERE...AND PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS.

THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP
FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR SOON THEN THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE WATCH WILL BE CANCELED.

BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SKOWRONSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY