Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Green Bay, WI

000 
WWUS53 KGRB 172226
SVSGRB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
526 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

WIC139-172300-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-060717T2300Z/
WINNEBAGO WI-
526 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM CDT
FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY...

AT 524 PM...DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LAKE
POYGAN...OR ABOUT 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERLIN...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WINNECONNE BY 540 PM...
  BUTTE DES MORTS BY 545 PM...
  LAKE BUTTE DES MORTS AND ALLENVILLE BY 550 PM...

TORNADOES CAN DEVELOP QUICKLY WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING. IF A TORNADO
IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY
STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

HAIL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED WITH THE STORM. IF
OUTDOORS...MOVE INSIDE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKES POYGAN OR WINNEBAGO...GET OFF THE WATER AND MOVE 
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU 
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER 
NOW. DONT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM

LAT...LON 4400 8887 4418 8887 4418 8881 4417 8879
      4417 8856 4416 8853 4394 8856 4392 8857
      4393 8859 4397 8889

$$

MG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM.

12Z SOUNDINGS AT GRB/MPX/DVN...AHEAD A THE COLD FRONT...ALL SHOWED STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ABOVE A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION OFF THE SURFACE.
THERE WAS PLENTY OF SHEAR BELOW THE CAP...ESPECIALLY AT GRB AND DVN.
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 20Z SHOWED A SHIFT IN THE WIND DIRECTION FROM
SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND A SLIGHT DROP IN DEW POINTS...WEST OF A LINE FROM
THE FOX VALLEY TO LAKE WINNEBAGO. TEMPERATURES WERE COOLER AND DEW
POINTS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AS WINDS SHIFTED TO NORTHWEST ALONG AND
BEHIND A LINE FROM MARINETTE TO WISCONSIN RAPIDS. CAPE VALUES WERE QUITE
HIGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT NOTHING WAS FIRING ALONG IT UNTIL ALMOST
20Z. EARLIER IN THE DAY SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPED WELL SOUTH OF THE
FRONT WHERE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.
THERE HAVE BEEN SOME REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THOSE
STORMS. THE STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING INTO A LINE
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVED THROUGH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

MODELS HAVE THE FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AS A
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD INTO WISCONSIN.
NO PCPN EXPECTED TUESDAY WITH BOTH OF THOSE FEATURES IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.  FORECAST FOCUS ON
PRECIP POTENTIAL DURING THE PERIOD.

THE MODELS AGREED QUITE WELL THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE A FASTER DEPARTURE ON THURDAY SO WILL WORD MORNING MENTION ON
THURSDAY FOR THE NW HALF OF THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE REGIME AGAIN BUILDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
 UPPER HEIGHTS LOWER FOR THE WEEKEND SO EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
MDM RANGE MODELS INCONSISTENT WITH PCPN CHC BUT WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE AN AFTN CHC FOR SATURDAY...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE THE REST OF
THE FCST DRY DUE TO NO SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE TO FOCUS ON.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO ABOVE NORMS AGAIN FOR THE MID WEEK AHEAD OF
THE MIDWEEK FRONT AND INCREASING UPPER HEIGHTS.

DD
&&

.GRB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MG/TDH
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-181700-
VILAS-ONEIDA-FOREST-FLORENCE-NORTHERN MARINETTE-SOUTHERN MARINETTE-
LINCOLN-LANGLADE-MENOMINEE-NORTHERN OCONTO-SOUTHERN OCONTO-DOOR-
MARATHON-SHAWANO-WOOD-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-
WINNEBAGO-CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN VERY UNSTABLE AIR ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM WAUSAUKEE TO NEKOOSA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

LMZ521-522-541>543-564-181700-
THE BAY OF GREEN BAY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND
PASSAGE-LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WASHINGTON ISLAND TO SHEBOYGAN-THE ADJOINING
WISCONSIN WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN OUT TO MID-LAKE-
1215 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WATERS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREEN BAY...AND LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE
TO SHEBOYGAN.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE MARINE FORECAST AREA. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS WITH THESE
STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME
SEVERE.

WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
415 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             BAILEYS HARBOR          45.06N 87.13W
07/17/2006  E1.75 INCH       DOOR               WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MIKEG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
437 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             KEWAUNEE                44.45N 87.50W
07/17/2006  E1.00 INCH       KEWAUNEE           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

            DOWNTOWN KEWAUNEE

0430 PM     HAIL             1 S KEWAUNEE            44.44N 87.50W
07/17/2006  E0.75 INCH       KEWAUNEE           WI   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

MIKEG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
455 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

WIZ022-036>040-045-048>050-172230-
DOOR-PORTAGE-WAUPACA-OUTAGAMIE-BROWN-KEWAUNEE-WAUSHARA-WINNEBAGO-
CALUMET-MANITOWOC-
INCLUDING STURGEON BAY...STEVENS POINT...APPLETON...GREEN BAY...
ALGOMA...WAUTOMA...OSHKOSH...CHILTON AND TWO RIVERS
455 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AT 450 PM...A BROKEN LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM JUST EAST OF KEWAUNEE...SOUTHWEST...TO
WAUSHARA COUNTY. SOME OF THE STORMS IN THE LINE WERE SEVERE...AND
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WAS WITH THIS
LINE OF STORMS.

THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP BEHIND THE
MAIN LINE OF STORMS. FOR THAT REASON...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
REMAINS IN EFFECT INTO THIS EVENING. THE SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME OF
THE WATCH IS 1000 PM...THOUGH IT IS LIKELY THAT THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL SHIFT INTO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BEFORE THAT TIME.

BE SURE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

SKOWRONSKI
WEATHER.GOV/GREENBAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
501 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0458 PM     HAIL             1 E COLOMA              44.03N 89.49W
07/17/2006  E0.50 INCH       WAUSHARA           WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

0440 PM     HAIL             2 N REEDSVILLE          44.19N 87.96W
07/17/2006  E0.50 INCH       MANITOWOC          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
506 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0502 PM     HAIL             OSHKOSH                 44.01N 88.55W
07/17/2006  E0.25 INCH       WINNEBAGO          WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
510 PM CDT MON JUL 17 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             CHILTON                 44.03N 88.16W
07/17/2006  E0.25 INCH       CALUMET            WI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&