Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND AGAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

19Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
KANSAS. LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
CYCLONIC SPIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING. UPPER LOW ALSO SEEN SPINNING
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

NAM AND GFS MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN
WYOMING AND MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO FORECAST AREA AS AN
MCS. STRONG 100 KT 250 MB AXIS SEEN ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WHICH
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION. POPS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN
PLACED IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST OF FORECAST AREA AS MCS
PROCEEDS ALONG. WITH THESE FACTORS IN PLACE SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY SUNDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCS AND CONVECTION OF LAST NIGHT. THEN
MODELS AGAIN ADVERTISE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. MODELS SHOW UPSLOPE AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS BEFORE
ENDING.

DID NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BIG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST REBUILDS ITSELF BACK INTO THE REGION KEEPING DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWER
90S.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1040 AM MDT SAT JUN 10 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-111300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1140 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006 /1040 AM MDT SAT JUN 10 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO FAR EASTERN
COLORADO AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT) AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DARK THESE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MERGE INTO A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. BY 3 AM MDT (4 AM CDT) THIS
CLUSTER SHOULD EXIT THE AREA. THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS
CLUSTER WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST...AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. THE HIGHEST THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF LINE EXTENDING FROM BENKELMAN
NEBRASKA THROUGH COLBY AND GOVE KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER EASTERN
COLORADO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS SHOULD THEN DRIFT EAST
INTO WESTERN KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS ALWAYS A HAZARD WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM CDT).

DDT

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