Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
218 PM MDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
TONIGHT AND AGAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AS
WELL AS TEMPERATURES.

19Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
KANSAS. LATEST IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE
CYCLONIC SPIN OF AN UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
EASTWARD THROUGH SOUTHERN WYOMING. UPPER LOW ALSO SEEN SPINNING
OVER WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

NAM AND GFS MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN
WYOMING AND MOVING EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO FORECAST AREA AS AN
MCS. STRONG 100 KT 250 MB AXIS SEEN ACROSS THIS AREA AS WELL WHICH
SHOULD HELP ENHANCE CONVECTION. POPS FOR TONIGHT HAVE BEEN
PLACED IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY MOST OF FORECAST AREA AS MCS
PROCEEDS ALONG. WITH THESE FACTORS IN PLACE SOME OF THE STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES WITH LOW TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD SEE A DRY DAY SUNDAY DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE MCS AND CONVECTION OF LAST NIGHT. THEN
MODELS AGAIN ADVERTISE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
OF COLORADO AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME INTO PORTIONS OF WESTERN
KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 21Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WENT
CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
80S.

FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN COLORADO ZONES. MODELS SHOW UPSLOPE AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN MOVE INTO EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS BEFORE
ENDING.

DID NOT MAKE BIG CHANGES WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. BIG UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR SOUTHWEST REBUILDS ITSELF BACK INTO THE REGION KEEPING DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL MAINLY IN THE 80S AND LOWER
90S.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

LAMMERS

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
503 PM MDT SAT JUN 10 2006

COZ090-102330-
YUMA COUNTY-
503 PM MDT SAT JUN 10 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR YUMA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

AT 501 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR ANTON...OR 27 MILES SOUTH OF AKRON...AND
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS OF 60 TO 75 MPH ARE EXPECTED
WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN SOUTHWESTERN YUMA COUNTY...SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER
SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE INTO
THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

BULLER