Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1250 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.AVIATION...SHOWERS/TSTMS INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE EARLY THIS
AFTN AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTN
INTO TONIGHT.  UPPER LOW IS STILL TO THE WEST AND EXPECT TSTMS TO
ALSO INCREASE OVER WEST TX WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  TIMING OF
NIGHTTIME SQUALL LINE IS STILL QUESTIONABLE WITH MODELS SLOWING
THINGS DOWN A BIT.  HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE 05-10Z TIMEFRAME FOR THE
BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT AREA TERMINALS.  UNTIL
THEN...MVFR CIGS TO PREVAIL MOST AREAS THROUGH THE AFTN WITH GRADUAL
LOWERING EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT WITH INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES.
PRECIP WILL END WEST TO EAST EARLY SAT MORNING WITH VFR CONDS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORN/EARLY AFTN... /DUNN/

&&

.UPDATE...
A TORNADO WATCH #256 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR EASTLAND...JACK...STEPHENS
AND YOUNG COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM CDT. AN UPDATE WAS SENT EARLIER
TO JUST ADD THE WATCH. ANOTHER UPDATE WAS SENT A FEW MINUTES
AGO TO ADJUST TEMPERATURES AND POPS. #58

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 320 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

..PROGRESSIVE...WET PATTERN FOR NORTH TEXAS THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...

UPPER LOW OVER S AZ WILL EJECT EASTWARD TODAY AND INTO THE HEART OF
THE COUNTRY SAT AFTN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS INCREASING ON STRONG WAA
LLJ THIS MORNING AND WILL PRIME OUR ATMOSPHERE FOR STRONG LIFT AND
JET DYNAMICS ARRIVING THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY SAT. EXPECT SOME
PRE-SYSTEM SHRA AND TSRA THIS AFTERNOON...THEN MAIN EVENT ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT AS A MCS FORMS OUT WEST AND PUSHES A SQUALL LINE THROUGH
NTX. STORMS PARAMETERS...LI/S WILL BE IN THE MINUS 2 TO 4 RANGE...
MUCAPES BETTER THAN 1200 J/KG...50+KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR...
STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ETA HELICITY OVER 350 M2/S2.
LARGE HAIL...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL 1-3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT.

SURFACE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TODAY AND QUITE BREEZY OVERNIGHT AS
PRESSURE FALLS TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.  FOR ON WILL ON 15-25
MOST AREAS....BUT SOME MAY HIT 20-30 FOR A WHILE JUST AHEAD OF THE
SQUALL LINE. EXPECT THE STORMS TO EXIT OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON SAT.

UPPER SYSTEM WILL NEARLY STALL OVER IOWA SUN-MON NGT WITH POTENTIAL
FOR A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SOME RAINFALL MON-TUES. AS
THE SYSTEM EJECTS EAST WED AN UP STREAM TROUGH WILL SLIDE INTO THE
THE MIDWEST WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH NTX THURS MORNING WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN THU-FRI.

COVER CLOUD...WIND AND RAIN WILL KEEP DIURNAL CHANGES SMALL FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS...THEN TEMPS WILL NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
THROUGH MID WEEK.  HAVE COOLED TEMPS A LITTLE MORE BEHIND NEXT WEEK
FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  76  61  75  57 /  50 100  40  10
WACO, TX              77  62  80  54 /  50 100  40  10
PARIS, TX             72  63  73  52 /  50 100  60  20
DENTON, TX            75  60  75  53 /  50 100  40  10
MCKINNEY, TX          75  61  73  52 /  50 100  50  10
DALLAS, TX            76  61  75  57 /  50 100  40  10
TERRELL, TX           75  62  75  54 /  50 100  50  20
CORSICANA, TX         75  63  76  55 /  50 100  50  20
TEMPLE, TX            80  62  80  54 /  50 100  40  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ115-TXZ129.

&&

/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
933 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-282200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
933 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT
WEST OF A GRAHAM ...STEPHENVILLE...LAMPASAS LINE. THERE IS ALSO A
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH
TEXAS.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES...MAINLY IN
WESTERN PORTIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WARM AND
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. IN ADDITION...BY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON MID LEVEL COOLING AND INCREASING UPPER LEVEL
INSTABILITIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS...ALLOWING FOR RAPID
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRY LINE IN WEST TEXAS. THIS AREA
OF STORMS WILL MOVE EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
AS THE STORM COMPLEX MOVES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO
INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING IN
EASTERN PORTIONS AS THE STORM COMPLEX EXITS THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL QUICKLY END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED OVER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY EVENING...WITH ACTIVATION LIKELY OVER THE
REMAINDER OF NORTH TEXAS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1157 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ130-281730-
ERATH-
1157 AM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR ERATH COUNTY...

AT 1157 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEPHENVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

A SECOND DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR DUBLIN. THIS STORM
WAS ALSO MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE BLUFF DALE...DUBLIN...
HUCKABAY...LINGLEVILLE...MORGAN MILL AND STEPHENVILLE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE
STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ115-281745-
STEPHENS-
1222 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR STEPHENS COUNTY...

AT 1222 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF BRECKENRIDGE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRECKENRIDGE...GUNSIGHT...
HARPERSVILLE AND IVAN.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1233 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ117-131-281815-
HOOD-PARKER-
1233 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR HOOD AND PARKER COUNTIES...

AT 1233 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF GRANBURY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANNETTA...BRIAR...
GRANBURY...HUDSON OAKS...OAK TRAIL SHORES...RENO...WEATHERFORD AND
WILLOW PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
103 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ130-281830-
ERATH-
103 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR ERATH COUNTY...

AT 103 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUBLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BLUFF DALE...DUBLIN...MORGAN
MILL...PURVES AND STEPHENVILLE.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF ERATH COUNTY BY 115 PM.

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