Flash Flood Warning 33, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
343 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
3/4 INCH HAIL...60 MPH WINDS..AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. CAPES REMAIN BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WE MUST
KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FOR LARGER HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS...80 TO 100 PERCENT...ACROSS
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST AND NORTHEAST....PRECIPITATION
SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO WEST LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLIDING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY...
WE MAY SEE SOME STORMS REDEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTH AND EAST...SO HAVE KEPT 20-30 PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING A SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AN
UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. #58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  63  77  57  86 / 100  30  10  10
WACO, TX              63  79  55  86 / 100  40  10  10
PARIS, TX             63  72  51  81 / 100  70  20   0
DENTON, TX            60  76  53  85 / 100  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          62  72  51  82 / 100  40  10  10
DALLAS, TX            64  76  57  83 / 100  40  10  10
TERRELL, TX           62  74  53  84 / 100  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         66  77  56  82 / 100  60  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            65  80  57  88 /  90  30  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 PM FRIDAY FOR TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ115-TXZ129.

&&

/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
520 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A 60 MILE WIDE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED SLOWLY NORTH FROM
AN EAST-WEST LINE NEAR THE DALLAS FORT WORTH AREA...TO A LINE FROM
JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. SOME MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

FURTHER SOUTH...A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM
SAN ANGELO TO HILLSBORO...AND PALESTINE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND MOVE EASTERLY ON A COURSE NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...THE STORMS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
LOCALIZED THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...THE AREA NEAR THE WARM
FRONT CONSTITUTES A LOCALIZED MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
AS THE STORM COMPLEX EXITS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

26

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