Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
217 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
APPROACHING...WNWD MOVING DISTURBANCE NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA LOOKS TO
CONTINUE ITS COURSE THROUGH MONDAY INTO E/SE TX. STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE COLD CORE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS BROAD AND COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF IT...THUS WILL BASE FCST MORE ON
MAIN PLAYER OVER NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA.

MODELS NOT PROJECTING NW MOVEMENT AND TEND TO WANT TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM MOVING DUE WEST...WHICH SATELLITE DATA SHOWS IS NOT THE
CASE. AS A RESULT...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE AVERAGE OF GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS...WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES AS COMPARED TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. WE EXPECT COVERAGE TO LESSEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF A SFC FOCUS...DESPITE
SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER N TX OVERNIGHT PER 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR
PROGS. DID LEAVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED E OF I-35 THIS
EVENING...COINCIDING WITH DEEPER TROPICAL PLUME. CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL...BUT FEEL IT CAN BE HANDLED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

FOR MON-TUES...WE LEFT BEST CHANCES OVER S/SE COUNTIES...WITH
LEAST CHANCES N/NW COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE
SW COUNTIES ON TUES...AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER N TX
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WEEK...BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS BACK OVER N TX. MAY SEE A WEAK FRONT STALL OVER THE ARK-LA-
TEX BY NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL HOLD ONTO SOME DIURNAL LOW POPS E OF
I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  78  98 /  20  20  20   0
WACO, TX              75  95  75  96 /  30  40  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  98  74  98 /  30  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            77  97  77  97 /  20  20  20   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  95  74  96 /  30  20  20   0
DALLAS, TX            79  99  78  98 /  30  20  20   0
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  96 /  30  30  30   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  94  74  96 /  40  40  40  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  93  73  95 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

TXZ105-062015-

HUNT-
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HUNT COUNTY

AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CADDO MILLS...CAMPBELL...
COMMERCE AND GREENVILLE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3301 9585 3325 9587 3318 9629 3288 9621

92