Special Weather Statement, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
217 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...
APPROACHING...WNWD MOVING DISTURBANCE NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA LOOKS TO
CONTINUE ITS COURSE THROUGH MONDAY INTO E/SE TX. STILL MANY UNCERTAINTIES
WITH THE COLD CORE SYSTEM. SYSTEM IS BROAD AND COMPLEX WITH SEVERAL
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OUT AHEAD OF IT...THUS WILL BASE FCST MORE ON
MAIN PLAYER OVER NEAR LAKE CHARLES LA.

MODELS NOT PROJECTING NW MOVEMENT AND TEND TO WANT TO KEEP THIS
SYSTEM MOVING DUE WEST...WHICH SATELLITE DATA SHOWS IS NOT THE
CASE. AS A RESULT...FOLLOWED MORE OF THE AVERAGE OF GFS ENSEMBLE
MEANS...WHICH IS MORE CONSERVATIVE ON RAIN CHANCES AS COMPARED TO
THE OPERATIONAL GFS. WE EXPECT COVERAGE TO LESSEN AFTER SUNSET
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND LACK OF A SFC FOCUS...DESPITE
SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER N TX OVERNIGHT PER 700-300 MB Q-VECTOR
PROGS. DID LEAVE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MENTIONED E OF I-35 THIS
EVENING...COINCIDING WITH DEEPER TROPICAL PLUME. CANT RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL...BUT FEEL IT CAN BE HANDLED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.

FOR MON-TUES...WE LEFT BEST CHANCES OVER S/SE COUNTIES...WITH
LEAST CHANCES N/NW COUNTIES. SLIGHT CHANCES WILL LINGER OVER THE
SW COUNTIES ON TUES...AS UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS BACK OVER N TX
FROM THE NORTHEAST. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD MODIFY SLIGHTLY AS WELL
WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER EARLY IN THE WEEK...BEFORE
INCREASING ONCE AGAIN LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...AS UPPER RIDGE
EXPANDS BACK OVER N TX. MAY SEE A WEAK FRONT STALL OVER THE ARK-LA-
TEX BY NEXT WEEKEND AND WILL HOLD ONTO SOME DIURNAL LOW POPS E OF
I-35.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  98  78  98 /  20  20  20   0
WACO, TX              75  95  75  96 /  30  40  40  20
PARIS, TX             75  98  74  98 /  30  20  20   0
DENTON, TX            77  97  77  97 /  20  20  20   0
MCKINNEY, TX          76  95  74  96 /  30  20  20   0
DALLAS, TX            79  99  78  98 /  30  20  20   0
TERRELL, TX           76  95  75  96 /  30  30  30   0
CORSICANA, TX         75  94  74  96 /  40  40  40  10
TEMPLE, TX            74  93  73  95 /  40  50  40  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-071100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
303 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS A LARGE
PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA. WHILE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
SEVERE LIMITS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH
TEXAS ON MONDAY AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS ON TUESDAY.
STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW
100S THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 TO 105 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING IF
STORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

TXZ105-062015-

HUNT-
252 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HUNT COUNTY

AT 252 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES EAST OF GREENVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 25
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CADDO MILLS...CAMPBELL...
COMMERCE AND GREENVILLE.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

LAT...LON 3301 9585 3325 9587 3318 9629 3288 9621

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

TXZ121-062045-

KAUFMAN-
311 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN KAUFMAN COUNTY

AT 311 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES EAST OF KAUFMAN...MOVING WEST AT 20 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COTTONWOOD...GRAYS PRAIRIE
AND KAUFMAN.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3252 9606 3269 9614 3256 9658 3235 9648

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

TXZ119-062045-
DALLAS-
321 PM CDT SUN AUG 6 2006

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN DALLAS COUNTY

AT 321 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF SEAGOVILLE...MOVING WEST AT 10
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BALCH SPRINGS...CEDAR
HILL...COCKRELL HILL...COMBINE...DESOTO...DUNCANVILLE...HUTCHINS...
LANCASTER...SEAGOVILLE AND WILMER.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM ALONG WITH VERY
HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3257 9653 3273 9652 3276 9699 3257 9699

DUNN