Flash Flood Warning 67, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

.AVIATION...
STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...WITH COLD AIR ST AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  ALTHOUGH LOW...THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT KACT OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE DEPTH OF
COLD LAYER BECOMES TOO THICK TO SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WITH POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PROGGED TO PASS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS.  THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PERIOD FROM
19/03-07Z...WHEN BOTH LIFT AND ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
SUBSIDENCE WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND 19/07-09Z...
BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CONCERNING CIGS...ST WILL
PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS REMAINING
MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST 19/14Z.  DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN CIGS
LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING AFTER DUSK...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING AOA 12 KNOTS.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
407 PM CDT

FRONT TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH...BOTH MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH CWA. TSRA CHANCES DIMINISH WITH EACH HOUR
OF NORTH WINDS. TSRA (SOME SVR) SOUTHERN ZONES. INITIAL CONVECTION
SW OF CWA...BUT SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WATCH BOX. VERY
HEALTHY BL MOISTURE BUT WEAK BL SHEAR...MOISTURE DEEPENING THOUGH
STILL INSUFFICIENT IN FWD CWA FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION.
MINIMAL MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...REMARKABLY STABLE MID-LEVELS WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL DRY ENTRAINMENT AND RESULTING DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL PRIMARY SVR THREAT. SVR THREAT SHOULD EXIT CWA TO THE SE
DURING FIRST PERIOD.

MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE IS HOISTED OVER THE COOL
SHALLOW LAYER OF AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
SHRA AND -RA...WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIP OUTSIDE OF INITIAL
TSRA. CONSIDERABLE CONVERAGE...BUT CARRYING LIGHT QPF. ETA MOST
IMPRESSED WITH POSTFRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. INCLINED TO AGREE AND
HAVE GONE WELL ABOVE GFS MOS NUMBERS. OFTEN A FINE LINE BETWEEN
CLOUDS AND -RA/DZ...SO LIKELY POPS CERTAINLY A GAMBLE. GFS HAS
SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE INITIALLY...BUT DRIES LAYERS ABOVE 800MB
TOO RAPIDLY WITH SHORTWAVE STILL UPSTREAM. ETA CARRIES 700-500MB
LIFT LONGER...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SATURATION/SEEDING PROCESSES.
ETA MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASING.
850MB FRONT WILL SCOUR CWA AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY BE EXHAUSTED THURSDAY. AFTER A DREARY START
TO THURSDAY...SKIES WILL GRADUAL CLEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A
COOL START...STILL EXPECT A REALLY NICE DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF FROPA...WITH BROAD TROUGH LAGGING
BEHIND. TROUGH AXIS MAY TAKE UNTIL MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL KEEP POSTFRONTAL POPS AT 10 FOR NOW. WEAK RIDGING
NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR LOW BEYOND WEEKEND EVENT. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  62  43  76 /  70  60  10   0
WACO, TX              55  63  45  78 /  70  60  10   0
PARIS, TX             50  58  39  72 /  70  70  10   0
DENTON, TX            50  62  41  75 /  70  50   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          50  64  40  77 /  70  60   0   0
DALLAS, TX            52  62  47  76 /  70  70  10   0
TERRELL, TX           53  61  42  77 /  70  70  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  65  43  77 /  70  70  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            55  64  45  77 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ142-
TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ174.

&&

42/25/84/82
91/13/20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
340 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
SOUTHEAST OF A HAMILTON...KAUFMAN...CANTON LINE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A
BONHAM...TERRELL...WACO...KILLEEN LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTH TEXAS. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOK LIMITED...THUS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION BEFORE 600 PM...AND OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXZ174-175-190000-

MILAM-ROBERTSON-
635 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MILAM COUNTY
  SOUTHERN ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
HEARNE TO 9 MILES EAST OF ROCKDALE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE FRANKLIN AND HEARNE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3075 9650 3056 9700 3072 9694 3086 9681
      3117 9634 3101 9629

82/JLD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXZ158-190045-

BELL-
639 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN BELL COUNTY

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF BERTRAM...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MAY REACH
SOUTHERN BELL COUNTY BY 700 AND 730 DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. THIS
STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES AND IF IT SHOULD INTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT REACHES BELL
COUNTY...A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BELTON...HOLLAND...LITTLE
RIVER-ACADEMY...ROGERS AND SALADO.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3100 9789 3091 9785 3076 9731 3099 9707
      3111 9714

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