Alert archive / Texas / Flash Flood Warnings in 2006

Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Fort Worth, TX

October 18, 2006Milam County, Robertson County, Texas

NWS Fort Worth, TX issued this flash flood warning at Oct 18, 2006, 7:06 PM CDT for Milam County, Robertson County, Texas. It was in force for 114 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Oct 18, 2006, 7:06 PM CDT (00:06 UTC)
Expired: Oct 18, 2006, 9:00 PM CDT
In force: 114 min
Issued by: NWS Fort Worth, TX
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Milam County, TX, Robertson County, TX

The radar

The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 00:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Oct 18, 7:16 PM CDT	FLASH FLOOD	Milano, TX	SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING ON SEVERAL ROADS NEAR MILANO.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this flash flood warning; the first came 10 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Fort Worth, TX (KFWD), launched 00:00Z, 0.1 hours before the alert went out and 217 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 661 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 51 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 170 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 353 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.5

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS54 KFWD 190007
FFWFWD
TXC331-395-190200-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
706 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN MILAM COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
  ROBERTSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 704 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED FLASH FLOODING   
  FROM A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. FLOODING OF   
  CREEKS AND STREETS HAS BEEN REPORTED IN AND AROUND HEARNE.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
  FRANKLIN AND CALVERT

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THESE STORMS WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY
ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS AND OTHER
LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO FLASH FLOODING.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS
IMMINENT. MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT
ATTEMPT TO CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS
THE ROADWAY. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL
ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE.

LAT...LON 3096 9632 3063 9691 3103 9698 3130 9635

$$


82/JLD

2 follow-up statements

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 190029
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
725 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXC331-395-190200-
ROBERTSON TX-MILAM TX-
725 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR
EASTERN MILAM AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

AT 724 PM CDT...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED SIGNIFICANT 
FLOODING FROM STRONG THUNDERSTORMS NEAR MILANO. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES 
ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARNED AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES 
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF MILAM AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES... 
AND ANOTHER 2 INCHES IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 9 PM.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FRANKLIN AND 
BREMOND.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR
IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...
DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...
EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER
GROUND.

LAT...LON 3133 9634 3099 9624 3088 9640 3076 9645
      3074 9662 3063 9684 3104 9699

$$

13

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 190116
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXC331-395-190200-
ROBERTSON TX-MILAM TX-
813 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR MILAM
AND ROBERTSON COUNTIES...

AT 813 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE MODERATE RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF ROBERTSON COUNTY...FROM NEAR 
CALVERT NORTH TO BREMOND. IN ADDITION...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS 
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF MILAM COUNTY...AS STRONG 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS. 
ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF ROBERTSON AND MILAM 
COUNTIES...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND RUNOFF FROM EARLIER STORMS WILL 
CONTINUE TO POSE A FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO FRANKLIN... 
CALVERT...BREMOND...CAMERON...BUCKHOLTS...AND THORNDALE. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE
BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT 
NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOST 
FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO 
CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE 
RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3134 9635 3099 9624 3088 9640 3076 9645
      3074 9662 3049 9716 3074 9727 3077 9731
      3090 9727

$$

13

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Oct 18, 6:45 PM CDT, 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 18, 6:45 PM CDT, 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
645 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

.AVIATION...
STRONG POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MAKE STEADY PROGRESS SOUTHWARD
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING...WITH COLD AIR ST AND GUSTY NORTH
WINDS IN ITS WAKE.  ALTHOUGH LOW...THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES FOR
CONVECTION WILL OCCUR AT KACT OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS BEFORE DEPTH OF
COLD LAYER BECOMES TOO THICK TO SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE-BASED
CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...WITH POSITIVELY TILTED MID-LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING SWWD TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND PROGGED TO PASS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS.  THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR IN THE PERIOD FROM
19/03-07Z...WHEN BOTH LIFT AND ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
SUBSIDENCE WILL RAPIDLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEYOND 19/07-09Z...
BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  CONCERNING CIGS...ST WILL
PERSIST IN SOME FORM THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CIGS REMAINING
MVFR THROUGH AT LEAST 19/14Z.  DEEPER MIXING WILL RESULT IN CIGS
LIFTING/SCATTERING TO VFR LEVELS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING AFTER DUSK...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS REMAINING AOA 12 KNOTS.

65/DD

&&

.DISCUSSION...
407 PM CDT

FRONT TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND WEAK PREFRONTAL TROUGH...BOTH MAKING
STEADY PROGRESS THROUGH CWA. TSRA CHANCES DIMINISH WITH EACH HOUR
OF NORTH WINDS. TSRA (SOME SVR) SOUTHERN ZONES. INITIAL CONVECTION
SW OF CWA...BUT SHOULD DEVELOP EASTWARD THROUGHOUT WATCH BOX. VERY
HEALTHY BL MOISTURE BUT WEAK BL SHEAR...MOISTURE DEEPENING THOUGH
STILL INSUFFICIENT IN FWD CWA FOR WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION.
MINIMAL MOISTURE ABOVE 800MB...REMARKABLY STABLE MID-LEVELS WITH
WEAK FLOW ALOFT. MID-LEVEL DRY ENTRAINMENT AND RESULTING DOWNBURST
POTENTIAL PRIMARY SVR THREAT. SVR THREAT SHOULD EXIT CWA TO THE SE
DURING FIRST PERIOD.

MAINTAINING LIKELY POPS MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE IS HOISTED OVER THE COOL
SHALLOW LAYER OF AIR SURGING SOUTHWARD. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO
SHRA AND -RA...WITH PRIMARILY LIGHT PRECIP OUTSIDE OF INITIAL
TSRA. CONSIDERABLE CONVERAGE...BUT CARRYING LIGHT QPF. ETA MOST
IMPRESSED WITH POSTFRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT. INCLINED TO AGREE AND
HAVE GONE WELL ABOVE GFS MOS NUMBERS. OFTEN A FINE LINE BETWEEN
CLOUDS AND -RA/DZ...SO LIKELY POPS CERTAINLY A GAMBLE. GFS HAS
SIMILAR MOISTURE PROFILE INITIALLY...BUT DRIES LAYERS ABOVE 800MB
TOO RAPIDLY WITH SHORTWAVE STILL UPSTREAM. ETA CARRIES 700-500MB
LIFT LONGER...GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SATURATION/SEEDING PROCESSES.
ETA MUCH MORE REASONABLE WITH MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY INCREASING.
850MB FRONT WILL SCOUR CWA AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE ABOVE FRONTAL
LAYER WILL GRADUALLY BE EXHAUSTED THURSDAY. AFTER A DREARY START
TO THURSDAY...SKIES WILL GRADUAL CLEAR BY LATE IN THE DAY. AFTER A
COOL START...STILL EXPECT A REALLY NICE DAY FRIDAY.

HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. PLENTY OF
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING OF FROPA...WITH BROAD TROUGH LAGGING
BEHIND. TROUGH AXIS MAY TAKE UNTIL MONDAY TO PASS THROUGH NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL KEEP POSTFRONTAL POPS AT 10 FOR NOW. WEAK RIDGING
NEXT WEEK...LOOKS LIKE PLEASANT AUTUMN WEATHER. RAIN CHANCES
APPEAR LOW BEYOND WEEKEND EVENT. 25

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  53  62  43  76 /  70  60  10   0
WACO, TX              55  63  45  78 /  70  60  10   0
PARIS, TX             50  58  39  72 /  70  70  10   0
DENTON, TX            50  62  41  75 /  70  50   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          50  64  40  77 /  70  60   0   0
DALLAS, TX            52  62  47  76 /  70  70  10   0
TERRELL, TX           53  61  42  77 /  70  70  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  65  43  77 /  70  70  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            55  64  45  77 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 10 PM WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ142-
TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ174.

&&

42/25/84/82
91/13/20

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 18, 3:40 PM CDT, 3 hours 26 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-191100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
340 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING
SOUTHEAST OF A HAMILTON...KAUFMAN...CANTON LINE. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A
BONHAM...TERRELL...WACO...KILLEEN LINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO NORTH TEXAS. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY LOOK LIMITED...THUS
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION BEFORE 600 PM...AND OVER SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Oct 18, 6:35 PM CDT, 31 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
635 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXZ174-175-190000-

MILAM-ROBERTSON-
635 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MILAM COUNTY
  SOUTHERN ROBERTSON COUNTY

AT 635 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES SOUTH OF
HEARNE TO 9 MILES EAST OF ROCKDALE...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE FRANKLIN AND HEARNE.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND SMALL HAIL ARE LIKELY
WITH THESE STORMS.

IF THESE STORMS INTENSIFY...A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3075 9650 3056 9700 3072 9694 3086 9681
      3117 9634 3101 9629

82/JLD

Special weather statement, Oct 18, 6:39 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
639 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

TXZ158-190045-

BELL-
639 PM CDT WED OCT 18 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN BELL COUNTY

AT 639 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF BERTRAM...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH. THIS STORM IS MOVING EAST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND MAY REACH
SOUTHERN BELL COUNTY BY 700 AND 730 DEPENDING ON ITS TRACK. THIS
STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN LLANO AND BURNET
COUNTIES AND IF IT SHOULD INTENSIFY BY THE TIME IT REACHES BELL
COUNTY...A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BELTON...HOLLAND...LITTLE
RIVER-ACADEMY...ROGERS AND SALADO.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS AS THEY MAY BE WASHED OUT.

LAT...LON 3100 9789 3091 9785 3076 9731 3099 9707
      3111 9714

The office that day

Everything else NWS Fort Worth, TX issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 18, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FWD	Bell	34 min
Oct 18, 8:01 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FWD	Bell	119 min
Oct 18, 8:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FWD	Milam	2 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Texas, 2006 Every flash flood warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.