Severe Thunderstorm Warning 246, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...RETRANSMISSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
215 PM MST TUE AUG 08 2006

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN OVER THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS...THE
MOGOLLON RIM...THE WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN
YAVAPAI COUNTY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS HAVE DELIVERED RAINFALL RATES
TOPPING AN INCH PER HOUR. MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SEEMS TO BE KEEPING A
LID ON STORM DEVELOPMENT FURTHER NORTH.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN WHICH EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO TO YUMA WILL CHANGE BUT LITTLE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED FROM THE SOUTH FROM TIME TO TIME MAKING
FOR REGULARLY OCCURRING AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEST COAST TROUGH PASSING NORTH OF THE
STATE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. INCREASED MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY GREATER SHEAR WITH THIS FEATURE COULD
PRODUCE MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION ON THOSE DAYS.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...AREAS EAST OF A 4 CORNERS TO
PRESCOTT LINE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET AND THEN TRANSITION TO AREAS OF SHRA WITH ISOLD TSTORMS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. WEST OF THIS LINE THE AIRMASS HAS LESS
MOISTURE AND MORE STABILITY. THUS THE WDLY SCT TSTORMS IN THIS AREA
SHOULD DIMINISH TO SKC-SCT150 AFT 03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HOWARD/41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
0930 AM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-090700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
0930 AM MST TUE AUG 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM WINDOW ROCK
TO FLAGSTAFF TO PRESCOTT. LESS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR NORTHWEST OF THAT
LINE. CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE MORNING. EXPECT LITTLE STORM
MOTION SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM HOLBROOK TO PAYSON.
ELSEWHERE...STORMS WILL TRACK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL HAZARD TODAY WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF FLOODING
UNDER SLOW MOVING STORMS IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY
PRECIPITATION IN RECENT DAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HOWARD