Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST MON AUG 07 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO OUR EAST. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN APACHE
AND NAVAJO COUNTIES AROUND MIDDAY...BUT STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAK WITH ONLY BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ELSEWHERE...WITH ONE STRONG STORM OVER THE AZ/UT BORDER EARLIER
WHERE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS GREATER. FOR THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP
ISOLATED STORMS IN THE FORECAST WEST OF A KAYENTA-WINSLOW-PAYSON
LINE WITH SCATTERED STORMS TO THE EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE VALUES
SUPPORT SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS...A WARM LAYER ALOFT (500-400MB LAYER)
IS LIKELY CAUSING DECREASED CAPE VALUES AND LIMITING CONVECTION.

FOR TUESDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ARIZONA.
THIS WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA IN A SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE
HIGHEST MOISTURE VALUES OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL PERSIST...SO POPS WERE LOWERED
SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE WILL BE NEAR THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A WEAK STEERING FLOW. MOISTURE SHOULD AGAIN BE MOST
PLENTIFUL OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS. NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMAL POPS ARE FORECAST.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE
AREA AGAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE
WEST COAST. SOME DRYING WOULD BE POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN SECTIONS IF
THIS SOLUTION WERE CORRECT. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LOW WITH THIS
SOLUTION SO ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NRN AZ THROUGH 04Z BEFORE DIMINISHING TO WDLY SCT
-SHRA. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF A PAGE TO
WHITE MOUNTAINS LINE WITH 3SM +TSRA AND CIGS DOWN TO 3 KFT AGL.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP AFT 18Z TUESDAY OVER NRN AZ.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

JJ/DL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1007 AM MST MON AUG 7 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-080700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1007 AM MST MON AUG 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAVE INCREASED THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF NAVAJO...APACHE AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES. THESE STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING...WITH THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHERE THE GROUND IS SATURATED DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN.

FOR COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...EXPECT ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS AND SCATTERED STORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE STORMS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AT 10-15 MPH. THE MAIN THREAT WITH STORMS IN
THIS AREA WILL BE HAIL NEAR ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
A MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.