Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST THU JUN 08 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE ARIZONA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AROUND ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS ON
TAP FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS OVER THE NORTHLAND AS A SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
TAP REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE REGION. A CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE
AT THE 500 MB LEVEL IS PERSISTING NEAR THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WHILE A
WEAK WEST COAST TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG DOWN ALONG THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHERLY MOISTURE
FETCH. MEANWHILE...MODEL DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE
LIFTED INDEX VALUES TYPICALLY AROUND -1 TO -3 WITH THE HIGHEST CAPE
AVAILABLE ACROSS APACHE COUNTY AND FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. AS SUCH...EXPECT MOST OF THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THESE AREAS.

GRADUAL DRYING IS THEN ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY...ADVECTING DRYER AIR INTO THE
MID-LEVELS OF THE AIRMASS. STILL PERIODS OF T-STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER. CURRENT ZONES/GRIDS HANDLE THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST WELL...AND AGREE WITH THE EXPECTATION OF AFTERNOON TEMPS
NEAR SEASONAL NORMS COUPLED WITH OCCASIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES.

KD

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO EXPAND IN
AREAL COVERAGE LATE THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH MID EVENING.
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
800 AM MST THU JUN 8 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-090700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
800 AM MST THU JUN 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS SPREAD OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE BY LATE MORNING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS. STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...AND KAIBAB
PLATEAU AND WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG MICRO BURST WINDS
BETWEEN 45 TO 55 MPH WITH SMALL HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER APACHE AND NAVAJO COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.