Severe Thunderstorm Warning 112, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
300 PM MST WED JUN 07 2006

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THIS
WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE ARIZONA. A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

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.DISCUSSION...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
APACHE COUNTY. SYNOPTICALLY...NORTHERN ARIZONA REMAINS SITUATED
BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR NE NEW MEXICO AND
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN BAJA PENINSULA. THIS IS ALLOWING
A MOISTENING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE WITH THE MAIN THREATS
CONTINUING TO BE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND NEW WILDFIRE INITIATION UNDER
RELATIVELY LOW QPF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALIZED AREAS OF
APPRECIABLE HAIL WILL ALSO CERTAINLY BE LIKELY. DIRECTIONAL AND
SPEED SHEAR LOOK TO INCREASE SOMEWHAT INTO THIS EVENING...AND AS
SUNSET APPROACHES WE WILL ONCE AGAIN NEED TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL
OF A STORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN AZ AND PROPAGATING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA. THOUGH STORMS WILL BE ENHANCED BY
DIURNAL HEATING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME...ENOUGH ENERGY IS
PRESENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST IN SOME FASHION THROUGHOUT
TONIGHT.

WINDS OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL TYPICALLY BE LIGHT (AT < 20
MPH)...WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZES. THE EXCEPTION WILL...OF
COURSE...BE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE SIGNIFICANT WINDS GUSTS ARE
ALWAYS POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON TEMPS HAVE RETURNED TO NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT GENERAL VICINITY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RISE TO ABOUT 5 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE
NORMALS FOR NEXT WEEK AS DRYER AIR AND INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS
ALOFT SHIFT OVER THE REGION.

KD

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD BE EAST OF LINE FROM PAGE TO
PAYSON. SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS MAY DEVELOP DUE TO BLOWING
DUST. DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&