Flash Flood Warning 77, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 092342
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
445 PM MST MON OCT 9 2006

AZC005-100000-
COCONINO AZ-
445 PM MST MON OCT 9 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM MST FOR THE 
BRINS FIRE BURN AREA IN SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY...

AT 430 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING HAVE MOVED EAST OF 
THE WARNED AREA...HOWEVER RADAR ESTIMATES THAT AROUND AN INCH OF 
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN OVER THE BRINS BURN AREA IN ABOUT 30 MINUTES. 
THIS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL OVER THIS SHORT OF A PERIOD OF TIME HAS 
CAUSED FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS POSSIBLE 
THROUGH 500 PM MST...HOWEVER NOT ENOUGH TO FURTHER AGGRAVATE FLASH 
FLOODING PROBLEMS WITHIN THE AREA. 

LAT...LON 3496 11177 3489 11177 3488 11170 3497 11172

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST MON OCT 09 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY  AND THURSDAY WITH SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY
WEATHER. ANOTHER PACIFIC  STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BY
THE END OF THE WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE ACROSS AZ TODAY WITH
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WRN ZONES AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ERN PORTION OF THE CWA. BEST DIVQ FORCING
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE ERN ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS BECAME SEVERE EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN BELOW SEVERE THRESHOLDS.

THE CURRENT LOW MOVES TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND SHOWER ACTIVITY
DIMINISHES ON TUESDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST
BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL BRIEFLY AMPLIFY THE RIDGE OVER AZ WED/THU
BRINGING SOME DRIER AND WARMER WX. THE LOW THEN BEGINS TO MOVE EAST
EARLY FRIDAY. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER AZ LATE FRIDAY AND
INTO SATURDAY FOR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE WEEKEND.
SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 9-10 KFT FOR THIS NEXT EVENT.
DB

&&

AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WITH SCT SHRA/TSRA INTO THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND END TUESDAY MORNING. CIGS 10-12 KFT
MSL EXCEPT IN THE VCNTY OF SHRA/TSRA WHERE CIGS WILL FALL AS LOW AS
1-2 KFT AGL. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG WITH 1-2 SM VSBY WILL BE PSBL BY
10Z TUESDAY. SCT CLOUDS WITH ISOLD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY
AFTER 18Z...BUT THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS TOO LOW FOR
MENTION AT TAF LOCATIONS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

DJO

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST MON OCT 9 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-100700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
915 AM MST MON OCT 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A STORM SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY WILL PRODUCE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERN GILA COUNTY EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE LITTLE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE
WITH LARGE HAIL IN EXCESS OF 3/4 INCH DIAMETER AND STRONG WIND
GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR NORTHERN GILA COUNTY...SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY...AND
SOUTHERN APACHE COUNTY. SEE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH...AVAILABLE AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR DETAILS. ELSEWHERE IN
NORTHERN ARIZONA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...PRODUCING
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SEVERE WIND GUSTS
OR HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...PRODUCING MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.