Flash Flood Warning 76, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 090540
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1033 PM MST SUN OCT 8 2006

AZC005-090600-
COCONINO AZ-
1035 PM MST SUN OCT 8 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MST FOR 
SOUTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY THE BRINS BURN AREA...

AT 1035 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED THAT THE  
THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING OVER THE WARNED AREA HAVE 
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE RAINFALL IS MUCH LIGHTER.

MORE MODERATE RAINFALL IS INDICATED BY RADAR MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD 
THE BRINS BURN AREA AND WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA BY AROUND 1045 PM 
MST. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 1100 PM MST FOR THE AREA ALONG HIGHWAY 89 THROUGH OAK CREEK 
CANYON BETWEEN SLIDE ROCK STATE PARK AND MIDGELY BRIDGE. 

THE HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE-THREATENING ROCKSLIDES...
MUDSLIDES...AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR THE BRINS FIRE BURN AREA IN OAK
CREEK CANYON...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF CREEKS...ROADS...AND NORMALLY
DRY WASHES. DO NO ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH THIS AREA UNTIL THE THREAT
HAS DIMINISHED.

LAT...LON 3490 11178 3489 11173 3494 11172 3495 11179

$$
TC

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 090556
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1058 PM MST SUN OCT 8 2006

AZC005-090603-
COCONINO AZ-
1058 PM MST SUN OCT 8 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 1100 PM MST FOR SOUTH 
CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY FOR THE BRINS BURN AREA...

THUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCED THE HEAVY RAIN OVER THE BRINS BURN AREA 
HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND ARE NO LONGER POSING A THREAT FOR 
HEAVY RAIN. FOR THIS REASON THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BRINS 
BURN AREA NORTH OF SEDONA ALONG HIGHWAY 89 WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE 
AT 1100 PM MST. 

LAT...LON 3490 11178 3489 11173 3494 11172 3495 11179

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
920 PM MST SUN OCT 08 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO ARIZONA WILL BRING AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEASONABLY MILD AND DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BY THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS RETURNING.
&&

.DISCUSSION...INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTHWEST OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PULL DEEPER MOISTURE UP ONTO THE RIM
TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWS A BAND OF STRATIFORM PRECIP OVER THE
MOGOLLON RIM AND PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY THIS EVENING...THIS BAND
WAS A PART OF A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OVER THE VALLEY
EARLIER THIS EVENING. OBSERVING SITES IN THE AREA ARE INDICATING ANY
WHERE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO A COUPLE TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN SO FAR THIS EVENING. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE VALLEY...AND WILL ROTATE
NORTHWARD UP ONTO THE RIM AND PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI COUNTY OVERNIGHT.
SYNOPTIC LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA LOW AND THE
EXIT REGION OF THE JET WILL PROPAGATE NORTHWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA ON MONDAY...HELPING THE PRECIP TO BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD. WE WILL HAVE TO BE ON THE ALERT FOR SOME LOCALIZED AREAS
RECEIVING REPEATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER AREAS SOAKED FROM
THE PREVIOUS STORM A FEW DAYS AGO.

CURRENT ZONE AND GRIDDED FORECASTS REPRESENT WELL CURRENT CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING...AND EXPECTED WX CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NO UPDATES TO
THESE FORECASTS ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...EAST OF A KPRC-KPGA LINE...EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WEST OF THE KPRC-KPGA LINE...EXPECT WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS. ANY
CEILINGS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 4-7 KFT
AGL EXCEPT IN THE VICINITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WHERE CEILINGS WILL
DIP AS LOW AS 2-3 KFT AGL.  EARLY MONDAY MORNING...EXPECT THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO INCREASE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

TC/RB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
320 PM MST SUN OCT 8 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-090700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
320 PM MST SUN OCT 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHING ARIZONA WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MOST WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO FLAGSTAFF TO BLACK CANYON CITY.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA MAY EXCEED ONE INCH IN SOME LOCATIONS. THE GROUND IS ALREADY
SATURATED IN THIS AREA AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JJ