Flash Flood Warning 69, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST SAT SEP 09 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST...COOL...AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
ARIZONA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY DECREASING STABILITY AND
INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN
ARIZONA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM CREATED THE INSTABILITY FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN YAVAPAI COUNTY EARLIER THIS MORNING. AS
THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD EXPECT ENHANCED CONVECTION IN NORTHERN
GILA COUNTY...THE MOGOLLON RIM AND THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TROUGH MOVES INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA DECREASING STABILITY AND
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE SLIGHTLY BUT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

BOHLIN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCAL CIGS
AROUND 2K TO 3K FT AGL WITH VSBYS AOB 2SM WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED AFT
04Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

STAUDENMAIER

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1050 AM MST FRI SEP 8 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-090700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1050 AM MST FRI SEP 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

CLEAR SKIES AND RAIN-COOLED GROUND HAS ALLOWED FOR A SLOW START TO
CONVECTION TODAY. HOWEVER...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG SOLAR HEATING
AS WELL AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STORM TO FORM FIRST ALONG THE
I-40 CORRIDOR FROM FLAGSTAFF WESTWARD. STORMS WILL THEN DROP SOUTH
AND SOUTHEAST INTO YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES. THESE AREAS AS WELL AS
SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTY WILL SEE THE MOST STORMS TODAY. AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 WILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON.

THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
AN HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER. DUE TO THE RECENT HEAVY RAINS OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN COCONINO AND CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...THESE
AREAS WILL BE MORE PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING IF HEAVY RAINS AFFECT THE
SAME AREAS TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...A SLOW
DECREASING TREND IN COVERAGE IS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.