Flash Flood Warning 30, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 310656
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1155 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

AZC005-310659-
COCONINO AZ-
1155 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
COCONINO COUNTY...

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE BRINS FIRE AREA CAUSED DEBRIS AND ROCK
SLIDES IN OAK CREEK CANYON EARLIER THIS EVENING...CLOSING
SR 89A. HOWEVER...RADAR AND GAGE DATA INDICATE THAT RAIN
ENDED AROUND 900 PM MST THIS EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL DEBRIS
SLIDES ARE UNLIKELY. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE CANCELLED.

THREE DEBRIS FLOWS OCCURRED THIS EVENING. THE LARGEST WAS ESTIMATED 
TO BE AROUND 100 FEET IN LENGTH AND ABOUT 4 FEET IN HEIGHT NEAR 
TROUT FARM...OR MILEPOST 380. THE FLOW CROSSED HIGHWAY 89A INTO OAK 
CREEK AND PARTIALLY DAMMED THE RIVER. IT IS NOT EXPECTED THE DEBRIS 
WILL COMPLETELY BLOCK THE FLOW OF WATER IN OAK 
CREEK...HOWEVER...RESIDENTS NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM IN OAK CREEK SHOULD 
KEEP INFORMED OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. AT THIS 
TIME...THE DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY IS WORKING TO CLEAR HIGHWAY 
89A FROM DEBRIS.

LAT...LON 3486 11179 3488 11169 3495 11171 3494 11178

$$

DJO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING HOURS TONIGHT...SOME WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER ARIZONA THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...ALTHOUGH A SLOW DRYING TREND WILL DECREASE AREAL COVERAGE BY
MIDWEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THREE MAIN AREAS
OF CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ONE AREA...WITH ATTENDANT LARGE
RAINFALL RATES...IS LOCATED OVER THE COCONINO PLATEAU AREA. THIS
CONVECTION CAUGHT UP IN RIDGE AXIS DEFORMATION ZONE WITH LITTLE
MOVEMENT SHOWN. SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD FLAGSTAFF OVER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SECOND
AREA FORMED OFF THE CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND IS CURRENTLY PUSHING
SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. THIRD AREA IS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND MOGOLLON
RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. THIS AREA IS PUSHING SOUTHWARD. EXPECT
AREAS IN BETWEEN TO DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
OUTFLOWS CONVERGE AND INTERACT. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LAST WELL INTO
THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...WITH GENERAL MOTION TO THE SOUTH AND OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE
GRAND CANYON TO CAMERON TO SANDERS.

STEERING FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY MONDAY WHICH WILL BEGIN A SLOW DRYING
TREND FOR THE WEEK. EXPECT ACTIVITY MONDAY TO STILL BE HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS WITH SIMILAR COVERAGE AS TODAY. AS THE FLOW
STRENGTHENS ALOFT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION...AND STRONGER WIND SHEAR PROFILE SUGGESTS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ON THESE DAYS. ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST LATER IN THE WEEK TO
CONTINUE TO REDUCE THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN
SECTIONS. HOWEVER...LOW-LEVELS REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH FOR DAILY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS EVEN IN THIS
DRIER AIRMASS. COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN NORMAL...BUT IT CERTAINLY
WONT BE A DRY FORECAST.

STAUDENMAIER

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION THROUGH 07Z WITH HEAVY RAIN...VISIBILITIES
LOCALLY REDUCED TO UNDER 1SM AND CEILINGS AOB 2000 FT AGL.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER 07Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL
MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR ZONES AZZ007-008-012>018-037-038. &&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1010 AM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-310700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1010 AM MST SUN JUL 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A MOIST...UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BRING ANOTHER DAY OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO NORTHERN ARIZONA. MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS OVER MANY AREAS
WILL DELAY THE ONSET OF CONVECTION TO 1100 AM OR EVEN NOON. STORM
MOTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT THE
GREATEST ACTIVITY FROM THE COCONINO PLATEAU...ALONG THE MOGOLLON
RIM...TO THE WHITE MOUNTAIN...AND SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE
GREATEST THREAT POSED BY TODAYS STORMS IS THE RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING DUE TO RELATIVELY SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AND HIGH VALUES OF
MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
11 AM MST THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM THE
GRAND CANYON TO SANDERS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCT PHXFFAFGZ FOR THE
ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXPECT CONTINUED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH MONDAY WITH
SOME CHANCE OF DRIER CONDITIONS THEREAFTER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

STAUDENMAIER